Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and German Weather Service models show Munich under stable high pressure with southerly flow, supporting daytime maxima of 32–34°C on August 14 with minimal cloud cover and low precipitation probability. These conditions align with the market-implied probabilities favoring 33°C (41%) and 34°C (31%), as historical August climatology in Bavaria rarely exceeds 35°C without stronger advection. Recent model runs have shown little shift in the 48-hour window, reinforcing trader consensus around this narrow range while noting that small changes in boundary-layer moisture or wind could nudge outcomes toward 32°C or 35°C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。8月14日慕尼黑气温最高？
8月14日慕尼黑气温最高？
33°C 39%
32°C 27%
34°C 15%
31°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-08-14
28°C or below
<1%
29°C
1%
30°C
1%
31°C
11%
32°C
27%
33°C
39%
34°C
15%
35°C
3%
36°C
2%
37°C
1%
38°C or higher
<1%
33°C 39%
32°C 27%
34°C 15%
31°C 11%
最新
最新
2026-08-14
28°C or below
$40 交易量
<1%
29°C
$13 交易量
1%
30°C
$9 交易量
1%
31°C
$76 交易量
11%
32°C
$213 交易量
27%
33°C
$63 交易量
39%
34°C
$304 交易量
15%
35°C
$1 交易量
3%
36°C
$145 交易量
2%
37°C
$18 交易量
1%
38°C or higher
$61 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and German Weather Service models show Munich under stable high pressure with southerly flow, supporting daytime maxima of 32–34°C on August 14 with minimal cloud cover and low precipitation probability. These conditions align with the market-implied probabilities favoring 33°C (41%) and 34°C (31%), as historical August climatology in Bavaria rarely exceeds 35°C without stronger advection. Recent model runs have shown little shift in the 48-hour window, reinforcing trader consensus around this narrow range while noting that small changes in boundary-layer moisture or wind could nudge outcomes toward 32°C or 35°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
交易量
$942结束日期
2026-08-14市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and German Weather Service models show Munich under stable high pressure with southerly flow, supporting daytime maxima of 32–34°C on August 14 with minimal cloud cover and low precipitation probability. These conditions align with the market-implied probabilities favoring 33°C (41%) and 34°C (31%), as historical August climatology in Bavaria rarely exceeds 35°C without stronger advection. Recent model runs have shown little shift in the 48-hour window, reinforcing trader consensus around this narrow range while noting that small changes in boundary-layer moisture or wind could nudge outcomes toward 32°C or 35°C.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Munich Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Munich Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/de/munich/EDDM.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$942结束日期
2026-08-14市场开放时间
Aug 12, 2026, 1:02 AM ETLatest ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and German Weather Service models show Munich under stable high pressure with southerly flow, supporting daytime maxima of 32–34°C on August 14 with minimal cloud cover and low precipitation probability. These conditions align with the market-implied probabilities favoring 33°C (41%) and 34°C (31%), as historical August climatology in Bavaria rarely exceeds 35°C without stronger advection. Recent model runs have shown little shift in the 48-hour window, reinforcing trader consensus around this narrow range while noting that small changes in boundary-layer moisture or wind could nudge outcomes toward 32°C or 35°C.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题