Uncertainty in short-term numerical weather prediction models for Manila's minimum temperature on August 25 drives the closely matched market-implied odds, with traders balancing potential for elevated nighttime readings near or above 31°C against cooler outcomes at or below 21°C. The southwest monsoon and associated convective patterns over the Philippines can suppress or enhance radiative cooling depending on cloud cover, rainfall timing, and wind shifts, while sea surface temperatures and urban heat island effects in the capital provide a warm baseline. Model ensembles show notable spread in boundary-layer moisture and steering flow over the next 48 hours, typical for late-August conditions where climatological minima average 24–26°C. Updated forecasts from regional meteorological agencies will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月25日马尼拉的最低温度？
8月25日马尼拉的最低温度？
31°C或更高 85%
21°C或以下 83%
22°C 41%
28°C 40%
最新
最新
2026-08-25
21°C或以下
83%
22°C
41%
23°C
22%
24°C
22%
25°C
28%
26°C
28%
27°C
28%
28°C
40%
29°C
21%
30°C
2%
31°C或更高
85%
31°C或更高 85%
21°C或以下 83%
22°C 41%
28°C 40%
最新
最新
2026-08-25
21°C或以下
$145 交易量
83%
22°C
$5 交易量
41%
23°C
$0 交易量
22%
24°C
$0 交易量
22%
25°C
$0 交易量
28%
26°C
$0 交易量
28%
27°C
$0 交易量
28%
28°C
$5 交易量
40%
29°C
$5 交易量
21%
30°C
$5 交易量
2%
31°C或更高
$145 交易量
85%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Uncertainty in short-term numerical weather prediction models for Manila's minimum temperature on August 25 drives the closely matched market-implied odds, with traders balancing potential for elevated nighttime readings near or above 31°C against cooler outcomes at or below 21°C. The southwest monsoon and associated convective patterns over the Philippines can suppress or enhance radiative cooling depending on cloud cover, rainfall timing, and wind shifts, while sea surface temperatures and urban heat island effects in the capital provide a warm baseline. Model ensembles show notable spread in boundary-layer moisture and steering flow over the next 48 hours, typical for late-August conditions where climatological minima average 24–26°C. Updated forecasts from regional meteorological agencies will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 23, 2026, 12:32 AM ET
交易量
$310结束日期
2026-08-25市场开放时间
Aug 23, 2026, 12:32 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Uncertainty in short-term numerical weather prediction models for Manila's minimum temperature on August 25 drives the closely matched market-implied odds, with traders balancing potential for elevated nighttime readings near or above 31°C against cooler outcomes at or below 21°C. The southwest monsoon and associated convective patterns over the Philippines can suppress or enhance radiative cooling depending on cloud cover, rainfall timing, and wind shifts, while sea surface temperatures and urban heat island effects in the capital provide a warm baseline. Model ensembles show notable spread in boundary-layer moisture and steering flow over the next 48 hours, typical for late-August conditions where climatological minima average 24–26°C. Updated forecasts from regional meteorological agencies will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 25 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=rpll
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$310结束日期
2026-08-25市场开放时间
Aug 23, 2026, 12:32 AM ETUncertainty in short-term numerical weather prediction models for Manila's minimum temperature on August 25 drives the closely matched market-implied odds, with traders balancing potential for elevated nighttime readings near or above 31°C against cooler outcomes at or below 21°C. The southwest monsoon and associated convective patterns over the Philippines can suppress or enhance radiative cooling depending on cloud cover, rainfall timing, and wind shifts, while sea surface temperatures and urban heat island effects in the capital provide a warm baseline. Model ensembles show notable spread in boundary-layer moisture and steering flow over the next 48 hours, typical for late-August conditions where climatological minima average 24–26°C. Updated forecasts from regional meteorological agencies will likely refine probabilities ahead of resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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