Persistent southwest monsoon (Habagat) cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms across Metro Manila are suppressing daytime heating on August 18, positioning 28°C as the leading market outcome at 41.5% implied probability. Official PAGASA observations and forecasts indicate recent maxima near 27.8–28.4°C under overcast skies, well below the seasonal August average high of 30–31°C. Reduced solar insolation from thick cloud layers limits surface warming, while high humidity and rainfall further moderate temperature rise. Trader consensus clusters on 27–29°C ranges as model guidance and real-time conditions point to limited intensification potential before peak heating. Updated NHC-equivalent regional forecasts and PAGASA bulletins through the afternoon will provide the next key data points for resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于8月18日马尼拉的最高温度？
8月18日马尼拉的最高温度？
28°C 72%
29°C 19%
30°C 6%
31°C <1%
最新
$21,430 交易量
最新
$21,430 交易量
2026-08-18
22°C或以下
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
<1%
27°C
<1%
28°C
72%
29°C
19%
30°C
6%
31°C
1%
32°C或更高
<1%
28°C 72%
29°C 19%
30°C 6%
31°C <1%
最新
$21,430 交易量
最新
$21,430 交易量
2026-08-18
22°C或以下
$102 交易量
<1%
23°C
$132 交易量
<1%
24°C
$272 交易量
<1%
25°C
$2,521 交易量
<1%
26°C
$2,579 交易量
<1%
27°C
$4,887 交易量
<1%
28°C
$3,545 交易量
72%
29°C
$3,007 交易量
19%
30°C
$2,231 交易量
6%
31°C
$914 交易量
1%
32°C或更高
$1,240 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (Habagat) cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms across Metro Manila are suppressing daytime heating on August 18, positioning 28°C as the leading market outcome at 41.5% implied probability. Official PAGASA observations and forecasts indicate recent maxima near 27.8–28.4°C under overcast skies, well below the seasonal August average high of 30–31°C. Reduced solar insolation from thick cloud layers limits surface warming, while high humidity and rainfall further moderate temperature rise. Trader consensus clusters on 27–29°C ranges as model guidance and real-time conditions point to limited intensification potential before peak heating. Updated NHC-equivalent regional forecasts and PAGASA bulletins through the afternoon will provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市场开放时间： Aug 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
交易量
$21,430结束日期
2026-08-18市场开放时间
Aug 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Persistent southwest monsoon (Habagat) cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms across Metro Manila are suppressing daytime heating on August 18, positioning 28°C as the leading market outcome at 41.5% implied probability. Official PAGASA observations and forecasts indicate recent maxima near 27.8–28.4°C under overcast skies, well below the seasonal August average high of 30–31°C. Reduced solar insolation from thick cloud layers limits surface warming, while high humidity and rainfall further moderate temperature rise. Trader consensus clusters on 27–29°C ranges as model guidance and real-time conditions point to limited intensification potential before peak heating. Updated NHC-equivalent regional forecasts and PAGASA bulletins through the afternoon will provide the next key data points for resolution.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 18 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Ninoy Aquino International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/ph/manila/RPLL.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$21,430结束日期
2026-08-18市场开放时间
Aug 16, 2026, 12:58 AM ETPersistent southwest monsoon (Habagat) cloud cover and scattered thunderstorms across Metro Manila are suppressing daytime heating on August 18, positioning 28°C as the leading market outcome at 41.5% implied probability. Official PAGASA observations and forecasts indicate recent maxima near 27.8–28.4°C under overcast skies, well below the seasonal August average high of 30–31°C. Reduced solar insolation from thick cloud layers limits surface warming, while high humidity and rainfall further moderate temperature rise. Trader consensus clusters on 27–29°C ranges as model guidance and real-time conditions point to limited intensification potential before peak heating. Updated NHC-equivalent regional forecasts and PAGASA bulletins through the afternoon will provide the next key data points for resolution.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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