California's 14th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+19 to D+20. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation amid misconduct allegations triggered a special election, with the June primary advancing two Democrats—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to the August 18 runoff under current boundaries. No Republican candidate reached the general ballot, consistent with the district's voter registration advantage (roughly 210,000 Democrats versus 73,000 Republicans) and history of wide Democratic margins. This structure drives the market's overwhelming consensus for a Democratic winner, as the outcome is locked in regardless of which candidate prevails. The only realistic shifts would require an unforeseen procedural change or delayed certification, both considered remote given the top-two advance rules and district composition.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于$35,739 交易量
$35,739 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
97%
共和党
1%
$35,739 交易量
$35,739 交易量
2026-11-03
民主党
$13,983 交易量
97%
共和党
$21,756 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+19 to D+20. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation amid misconduct allegations triggered a special election, with the June primary advancing two Democrats—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to the August 18 runoff under current boundaries. No Republican candidate reached the general ballot, consistent with the district's voter registration advantage (roughly 210,000 Democrats versus 73,000 Republicans) and history of wide Democratic margins. This structure drives the market's overwhelming consensus for a Democratic winner, as the outcome is locked in regardless of which candidate prevails. The only realistic shifts would require an unforeseen procedural change or delayed certification, both considered remote given the top-two advance rules and district composition.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ET
交易量
$35,739结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 14th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+19 to D+20. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation amid misconduct allegations triggered a special election, with the June primary advancing two Democrats—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to the August 18 runoff under current boundaries. No Republican candidate reached the general ballot, consistent with the district's voter registration advantage (roughly 210,000 Democrats versus 73,000 Republicans) and history of wide Democratic margins. This structure drives the market's overwhelming consensus for a Democratic winner, as the outcome is locked in regardless of which candidate prevails. The only realistic shifts would require an unforeseen procedural change or delayed certification, both considered remote given the top-two advance rules and district composition.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-14 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$35,739结束日期
2026-11-03市场开放时间
Jan 27, 2026, 11:56 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 14th congressional district maintains a strong Democratic lean, reflected in its Cook Partisan Voter Index of D+19 to D+20. Eric Swalwell's April 2026 resignation amid misconduct allegations triggered a special election, with the June primary advancing two Democrats—Aisha Wahab and Melissa Hernandez—to the August 18 runoff under current boundaries. No Republican candidate reached the general ballot, consistent with the district's voter registration advantage (roughly 210,000 Democrats versus 73,000 Republicans) and history of wide Democratic margins. This structure drives the market's overwhelming consensus for a Democratic winner, as the outcome is locked in regardless of which candidate prevails. The only realistic shifts would require an unforeseen procedural change or delayed certification, both considered remote given the top-two advance rules and district composition.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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