Democratic incumbent Adam Gray holds a strong position in California's 13th congressional district for the November 2026 general election, with traders assigning the Democratic Party an 89.5% implied probability of victory. Gray flipped the seat by fewer than 200 votes in 2024 and advanced comfortably through the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican challenger Kevin Lincoln, the former Stockton mayor. Proposition 50 redistricting shifted boundaries to increase the district's Democratic lean, incorporating more favorable areas around Stockton and reducing its prior swing character. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting incumbency advantages, fundraising patterns, and voter registration edges that limit Republican paths despite Lincoln's profile. No major late developments have altered this consensus in recent weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
最新
2026-11-04
民主党
90%
共和党
11%
最新
最新
2026-11-04
民主党
$3,745 交易量
90%
共和党
$3,221 交易量
11%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Adam Gray holds a strong position in California's 13th congressional district for the November 2026 general election, with traders assigning the Democratic Party an 89.5% implied probability of victory. Gray flipped the seat by fewer than 200 votes in 2024 and advanced comfortably through the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican challenger Kevin Lincoln, the former Stockton mayor. Proposition 50 redistricting shifted boundaries to increase the district's Democratic lean, incorporating more favorable areas around Stockton and reducing its prior swing character. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting incumbency advantages, fundraising patterns, and voter registration edges that limit Republican paths despite Lincoln's profile. No major late developments have altered this consensus in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市场开放时间： Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ET
交易量
$6,966结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Democratic incumbent Adam Gray holds a strong position in California's 13th congressional district for the November 2026 general election, with traders assigning the Democratic Party an 89.5% implied probability of victory. Gray flipped the seat by fewer than 200 votes in 2024 and advanced comfortably through the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican challenger Kevin Lincoln, the former Stockton mayor. Proposition 50 redistricting shifted boundaries to increase the district's Democratic lean, incorporating more favorable areas around Stockton and reducing its prior swing character. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting incumbency advantages, fundraising patterns, and voter registration edges that limit Republican paths despite Lincoln's profile. No major late developments have altered this consensus in recent weeks.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$6,966结束日期
2026-11-04市场开放时间
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Democratic incumbent Adam Gray holds a strong position in California's 13th congressional district for the November 2026 general election, with traders assigning the Democratic Party an 89.5% implied probability of victory. Gray flipped the seat by fewer than 200 votes in 2024 and advanced comfortably through the June 2026 top-two primary alongside Republican challenger Kevin Lincoln, the former Stockton mayor. Proposition 50 redistricting shifted boundaries to increase the district's Democratic lean, incorporating more favorable areas around Stockton and reducing its prior swing character. Forecasters rate the contest Solid or Safe Democratic, reflecting incumbency advantages, fundraising patterns, and voter registration edges that limit Republican paths despite Lincoln's profile. No major late developments have altered this consensus in recent weeks.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题