The Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor on August 11 featured a tight contest between state Rep. Francesca Hong and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, with Kelda Roys and Joel Brennan trailing significantly. Late endorsements from Gov. Tony Evers and other establishment figures boosted Crowley after earlier frontrunner dropouts, narrowing what had been Hong’s polling lead in a race testing progressive versus moderate factions. Vote tallies through early August 12 showed the pair separated by under 0.5 percentage points in a high-turnout contest, driving trader consensus toward Crowley margins below 1% or other unresolved outcomes. Ongoing county-level counting in Milwaukee and Madison areas, combined with the narrow spread and historical precedent for small final adjustments in Wisconsin primaries, sustains the current implied probabilities around these brackets.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于克劳利 <1% 73.6%
克劳利 1–2% 13%
克劳利 3–4% 8.2%
洪 <1% 5.8%
最新
$64,724 交易量
最新
$64,724 交易量
2026-08-13
洪 6%+
<1%
洪 5-6%
<1%
洪 4-5%
<1%
洪 3-4%
1%
洪领先2-3%
2%
洪 1-2%
1%
洪 <1%
6%
克劳利 <1%
74%
克劳利 1–2%
13%
Crowley 2-3%
2%
克劳利 3–4%
8%
克劳利4-5%
2%
克劳利 5-6%
<1%
克劳利 6%+
<1%
克劳利 <1% 73.6%
克劳利 1–2% 13%
克劳利 3–4% 8.2%
洪 <1% 5.8%
最新
$64,724 交易量
最新
$64,724 交易量
2026-08-13
洪 6%+
$12,563 交易量
<1%
洪 5-6%
$3,714 交易量
<1%
洪 4-5%
$3,377 交易量
<1%
洪 3-4%
$11,011 交易量
1%
洪领先2-3%
$2,738 交易量
2%
洪 1-2%
$5,618 交易量
1%
洪 <1%
$2,746 交易量
6%
克劳利 <1%
$1,658 交易量
74%
克劳利 1–2%
$2,892 交易量
13%
Crowley 2-3%
$4,472 交易量
2%
克劳利 3–4%
$4,234 交易量
8%
克劳利4-5%
$2,286 交易量
2%
克劳利 5-6%
$3,312 交易量
<1%
克劳利 6%+
$4,102 交易量
<1%
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor on August 11 featured a tight contest between state Rep. Francesca Hong and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, with Kelda Roys and Joel Brennan trailing significantly. Late endorsements from Gov. Tony Evers and other establishment figures boosted Crowley after earlier frontrunner dropouts, narrowing what had been Hong’s polling lead in a race testing progressive versus moderate factions. Vote tallies through early August 12 showed the pair separated by under 0.5 percentage points in a high-turnout contest, driving trader consensus toward Crowley margins below 1% or other unresolved outcomes. Ongoing county-level counting in Milwaukee and Madison areas, combined with the narrow spread and historical precedent for small final adjustments in Wisconsin primaries, sustains the current implied probabilities around these brackets.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
市场开放时间： Aug 11, 2026, 10:03 PM ET
交易量
$64,724结束日期
2026-08-12市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 10:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.The Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor on August 11 featured a tight contest between state Rep. Francesca Hong and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, with Kelda Roys and Joel Brennan trailing significantly. Late endorsements from Gov. Tony Evers and other establishment figures boosted Crowley after earlier frontrunner dropouts, narrowing what had been Hong’s polling lead in a race testing progressive versus moderate factions. Vote tallies through early August 12 showed the pair separated by under 0.5 percentage points in a high-turnout contest, driving trader consensus toward Crowley margins below 1% or other unresolved outcomes. Ongoing county-level counting in Milwaukee and Madison areas, combined with the narrow spread and historical precedent for small final adjustments in Wisconsin primaries, sustains the current implied probabilities around these brackets.
The Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election is scheduled for August 11, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the Wisconsin Gubernatorial Democratic primary election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher margin bracket.
If two candidates receive the exact same highest number of valid votes and both are listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for the tied candidate whose last name comes first alphabetically. If only one of the tied candidates is listed, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket for that listed candidate. If neither tied candidate is listed, this market will resolve to “Other.”
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the count has been made official.
If the results of the specified election are not known definitively by November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.
The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the State of Wisconsin, such as official statewide results published by the Wisconsin Elections Commission (https://myvote.wi.gov/); however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
交易量
$64,724结束日期
2026-08-12市场开放时间
Aug 11, 2026, 10:03 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The Wisconsin Democratic primary for governor on August 11 featured a tight contest between state Rep. Francesca Hong and Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, with Kelda Roys and Joel Brennan trailing significantly. Late endorsements from Gov. Tony Evers and other establishment figures boosted Crowley after earlier frontrunner dropouts, narrowing what had been Hong’s polling lead in a race testing progressive versus moderate factions. Vote tallies through early August 12 showed the pair separated by under 0.5 percentage points in a high-turnout contest, driving trader consensus toward Crowley margins below 1% or other unresolved outcomes. Ongoing county-level counting in Milwaukee and Madison areas, combined with the narrow spread and historical precedent for small final adjustments in Wisconsin primaries, sustains the current implied probabilities around these brackets.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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