Technical fingerprinting of Ox Alpha, the anonymous 1M-token reasoning model released on OpenRouter on August 20, has driven Z.ai's 92.5% implied probability. Multiple independent probes show a perfect 95-of-95 tokenizer match with Z.ai’s GLM-5 family, plus matching error strings, Java stack traces, and video-token accounting consistent with its serving infrastructure. This aligns with Z.ai’s prior anonymous GLM previews on the same platform. While no company has issued an official claim, traders view the evidence as near-conclusive for lineage and operator. A credible denial, conflicting forensic data, or an unexpected announcement from another lab could still shift resolution before the December 2026 deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於Z.ai 91%
Google 3.7%
安全超級智慧 2.7%
小米 1.4%
最新
$22,159 交易量
最新
$22,159 交易量
2026-12-31
Z.ai
91%
4%
安全超級智慧
3%
小米
1%
字節跳動
1%
Meta
1%
Cursor
1%
Mistral
1%
阿里巴巴
1%
MiniMax
1%
騰訊
1%
xAI
<1%
Moonshot AI
<1%
StepFun
<1%
Nvidia
<1%
微軟
<1%
OpenAI
<1%
Thinky
<1%
美團
<1%
Anthropic
<1%
DeepSeek
<1%
亞馬遜
<1%
百度
<1%
Z.ai 91%
Google 3.7%
安全超級智慧 2.7%
小米 1.4%
最新
$22,159 交易量
最新
$22,159 交易量
2026-12-31
Z.ai
$6,568 交易量
91%
$1,116 交易量
4%
安全超級智慧
$1,030 交易量
3%
小米
$892 交易量
1%
字節跳動
$838 交易量
1%
Meta
$366 交易量
1%
Cursor
$902 交易量
1%
Mistral
$905 交易量
1%
阿里巴巴
$850 交易量
1%
MiniMax
$704 交易量
1%
騰訊
$817 交易量
1%
xAI
$1,023 交易量
<1%
Moonshot AI
$699 交易量
<1%
StepFun
$713 交易量
<1%
Nvidia
$535 交易量
<1%
微軟
$522 交易量
<1%
OpenAI
$527 交易量
<1%
Thinky
$545 交易量
<1%
美團
$535 交易量
<1%
Anthropic
$526 交易量
<1%
DeepSeek
$516 交易量
<1%
亞馬遜
$665 交易量
<1%
百度
$366 交易量
<1%
Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Technical fingerprinting of Ox Alpha, the anonymous 1M-token reasoning model released on OpenRouter on August 20, has driven Z.ai's 92.5% implied probability. Multiple independent probes show a perfect 95-of-95 tokenizer match with Z.ai’s GLM-5 family, plus matching error strings, Java stack traces, and video-token accounting consistent with its serving infrastructure. This aligns with Z.ai’s prior anonymous GLM previews on the same platform. While no company has issued an official claim, traders view the evidence as near-conclusive for lineage and operator. A credible denial, conflicting forensic data, or an unexpected announcement from another lab could still shift resolution before the December 2026 deadline.
Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Aug 24, 2026, 11:33 AM ET
交易量
$22,159結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Aug 24, 2026, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Technical fingerprinting of Ox Alpha, the anonymous 1M-token reasoning model released on OpenRouter on August 20, has driven Z.ai's 92.5% implied probability. Multiple independent probes show a perfect 95-of-95 tokenizer match with Z.ai’s GLM-5 family, plus matching error strings, Java stack traces, and video-token accounting consistent with its serving infrastructure. This aligns with Z.ai’s prior anonymous GLM previews on the same platform. While no company has issued an official claim, traders view the evidence as near-conclusive for lineage and operator. A credible denial, conflicting forensic data, or an unexpected announcement from another lab could still shift resolution before the December 2026 deadline.
Ox Alpha is a stealth reasoning model made available on OpenRouter on August 20, 2026, whose developer had not been publicly confirmed as of market creation.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market will resolve according to the company that developed Ox Alpha, as identified by either the respective company, OpenRouter, or an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
A qualifying announcement by OpenRouter or the respective company must be public. Private communications, internal messages, statements by individuals not authorized to speak on behalf of OpenRouter or the respective company, informal statements, statements from unnamed sources, and leaks will not qualify as official announcements.
A qualifying identification must unambiguously state that the company developed Ox Alpha or that Ox Alpha was an early, preview, or internal version of one of its models. Statements that merely speculate about Ox Alpha’s identity, infer its identity from technical similarities, or identify only its operator, host, or underlying model family will not be considered. An overwhelming consensus of credible reporting will qualify only if it unambiguously identifies the developer as fact rather than merely repeating speculation, technical inferences, unnamed claims, or leaks.
If two or more companies are identified as having jointly developed Ox Alpha, this market will resolve to the company identified as its primary developer. If no primary developer is clearly identified, the jointly identified companies will be ordered alphabetically according to their names as listed in this market group, and this market will resolve to the outcome listed first under that ordering. For purposes of this ordering, any jointly identified company not separately listed in this market group will be treated as “Other”.
If Ox Alpha’s developer is not clearly identified through a qualifying identification by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other".
The primary resolution sources for this market will be official information from the respective company or its official representatives, as well as official information from OpenRouter, including its official website and official X account; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$22,159結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Aug 24, 2026, 11:33 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Technical fingerprinting of Ox Alpha, the anonymous 1M-token reasoning model released on OpenRouter on August 20, has driven Z.ai's 92.5% implied probability. Multiple independent probes show a perfect 95-of-95 tokenizer match with Z.ai’s GLM-5 family, plus matching error strings, Java stack traces, and video-token accounting consistent with its serving infrastructure. This aligns with Z.ai’s prior anonymous GLM previews on the same platform. While no company has issued an official claim, traders view the evidence as near-conclusive for lineage and operator. A credible denial, conflicting forensic data, or an unexpected announcement from another lab could still shift resolution before the December 2026 deadline.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions