Anthropic's July 24 release of Claude Opus 5 has driven the strong trader consensus around its high and max effort variants, as the model delivered step-change gains in deep reasoning, long-horizon agentic tasks, and test-time compute scaling over Opus 4.8 while matching much of Fable 5's frontier performance at lower cost. Official benchmarks show Opus 5 leading on evaluations such as Frontier-Bench, ARC-AGI 3, and coding suites, with thinking enabled by default and a full effort ladder supporting the higher settings favored in the market. The older claude-opus-4-6-high holds minimal implied probability due to its superseded capabilities, while the tight split between Opus 5 high and max reflects ongoing debate over optimal effort-cost tradeoffs ahead of the September 7 resolution. No major competing releases or capability shifts have emerged in the past month to alter this positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於claude-opus-5-high 56%
claude-opus-5-max 34%
其他 10.0%
claude-opus-4-6-high 1.1%
最新
最新
2026-09-07
claude-opus-5-high
56%
claude-opus-5-max
34%
其他
10%
claude-opus-4-6-high
1%
claude-opus-5-high 56%
claude-opus-5-max 34%
其他 10.0%
claude-opus-4-6-high 1.1%
最新
最新
2026-09-07
claude-opus-5-high
$1,925 交易量
56%
claude-opus-5-max
$579 交易量
34%
其他
$286 交易量
10%
claude-opus-4-6-high
$338 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's July 24 release of Claude Opus 5 has driven the strong trader consensus around its high and max effort variants, as the model delivered step-change gains in deep reasoning, long-horizon agentic tasks, and test-time compute scaling over Opus 4.8 while matching much of Fable 5's frontier performance at lower cost. Official benchmarks show Opus 5 leading on evaluations such as Frontier-Bench, ARC-AGI 3, and coding suites, with thinking enabled by default and a full effort ladder supporting the higher settings favored in the market. The older claude-opus-4-6-high holds minimal implied probability due to its superseded capabilities, while the tight split between Opus 5 high and max reflects ongoing debate over optimal effort-cost tradeoffs ahead of the September 7 resolution. No major competing releases or capability shifts have emerged in the past month to alter this positioning.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
市場開放時間： Aug 21, 2026, 2:42 PM ET
交易量
$3,128結束日期
2026-09-07市場開放時間
Aug 21, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Anthropic's July 24 release of Claude Opus 5 has driven the strong trader consensus around its high and max effort variants, as the model delivered step-change gains in deep reasoning, long-horizon agentic tasks, and test-time compute scaling over Opus 4.8 while matching much of Fable 5's frontier performance at lower cost. Official benchmarks show Opus 5 leading on evaluations such as Frontier-Bench, ARC-AGI 3, and coding suites, with thinking enabled by default and a full effort ladder supporting the higher settings favored in the market. The older claude-opus-4-6-high holds minimal implied probability due to its superseded capabilities, while the tight split between Opus 5 high and max reflects ongoing debate over optimal effort-cost tradeoffs ahead of the September 7 resolution. No major competing releases or capability shifts have emerged in the past month to alter this positioning.
This market will resolve according to the model that has the highest arena rank based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab is checked on the specified date, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/overall-no-style-control with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
No new model will be added to this market after market creation. Any model not explicitly listed in this market will be encompassed under the "Other" option.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of model names as listed in this market group (full string, including suffixes such as “-high” and “-max”) will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if two models remain tied, “claude-opus-5-high” would be ranked ahead of “claude-opus-5-max”). This market will resolve to the model that comes first according to this order.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Overall). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
交易量
$3,128結束日期
2026-09-07市場開放時間
Aug 21, 2026, 2:42 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Anthropic's July 24 release of Claude Opus 5 has driven the strong trader consensus around its high and max effort variants, as the model delivered step-change gains in deep reasoning, long-horizon agentic tasks, and test-time compute scaling over Opus 4.8 while matching much of Fable 5's frontier performance at lower cost. Official benchmarks show Opus 5 leading on evaluations such as Frontier-Bench, ARC-AGI 3, and coding suites, with thinking enabled by default and a full effort ladder supporting the higher settings favored in the market. The older claude-opus-4-6-high holds minimal implied probability due to its superseded capabilities, while the tight split between Opus 5 high and max reflects ongoing debate over optimal effort-cost tradeoffs ahead of the September 7 resolution. No major competing releases or capability shifts have emerged in the past month to alter this positioning.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions