**Anthropic and OpenAI currently lead the frontier AI race as of early September 2026, with their latest models trading top spots across major benchmarks.** Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, Opus 5, and Mythos variants frequently top composite intelligence indices, SWE-bench Verified coding scores, and agentic evaluations like Terminal-Bench. OpenAI countered with the September 3–4 launch of GPT-6 Astra, marketed as its most advanced model yet for coding, computer use, and alignment, though independent scores show it competitive with or slightly behind Anthropic’s leaders on several metrics. Google’s Gemini 3.x Flash series excels in speed and value but trails on frontier reasoning. xAI’s Grok 4.6 and Chinese labs (Qwen, GLM, Kimi) deliver strong value and occasional arena wins but rarely claim overall #1. Rapid weekly releases, benchmark volatility, and year-end model cycles from all major labs create ongoing uncertainty in which company holds the single top position by December 31.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$142,666 交易量
2026-12-31
OpenAI
31%
23%
xAI
13%
阿里巴巴
12%
Z.ai
11%
Meta
11%
Moonshot
9%
字節跳動
8%
百度
7%
DeepSeek
6%
微軟
5%
亞馬遜
3%
Mistral
3%
美團
3%
$142,666 交易量
OpenAI
$27,617 交易量
31%
$18,555 交易量
23%
xAI
$9,098 交易量
13%
阿里巴巴
$3,589 交易量
12%
Z.ai
$5,381 交易量
11%
Meta
$15,798 交易量
11%
Moonshot
$9,997 交易量
9%
字節跳動
$2,936 交易量
8%
百度
$1,981 交易量
7%
DeepSeek
$23,571 交易量
6%
微軟
$5,191 交易量
5%
亞馬遜
$5,156 交易量
3%
Mistral
$10,316 交易量
3%
美團
$3,480 交易量
3%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.**Anthropic and OpenAI currently lead the frontier AI race as of early September 2026, with their latest models trading top spots across major benchmarks.** Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, Opus 5, and Mythos variants frequently top composite intelligence indices, SWE-bench Verified coding scores, and agentic evaluations like Terminal-Bench. OpenAI countered with the September 3–4 launch of GPT-6 Astra, marketed as its most advanced model yet for coding, computer use, and alignment, though independent scores show it competitive with or slightly behind Anthropic’s leaders on several metrics. Google’s Gemini 3.x Flash series excels in speed and value but trails on frontier reasoning. xAI’s Grok 4.6 and Chinese labs (Qwen, GLM, Kimi) deliver strong value and occasional arena wins but rarely claim overall #1. Rapid weekly releases, benchmark volatility, and year-end model cycles from all major labs create ongoing uncertainty in which company holds the single top position by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
市場開放時間： Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET
交易量
$142,666結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.**Anthropic and OpenAI currently lead the frontier AI race as of early September 2026, with their latest models trading top spots across major benchmarks.** Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, Opus 5, and Mythos variants frequently top composite intelligence indices, SWE-bench Verified coding scores, and agentic evaluations like Terminal-Bench. OpenAI countered with the September 3–4 launch of GPT-6 Astra, marketed as its most advanced model yet for coding, computer use, and alignment, though independent scores show it competitive with or slightly behind Anthropic’s leaders on several metrics. Google’s Gemini 3.x Flash series excels in speed and value but trails on frontier reasoning. xAI’s Grok 4.6 and Chinese labs (Qwen, GLM, Kimi) deliver strong value and occasional arena wins but rarely claim overall #1. Rapid weekly releases, benchmark volatility, and year-end model cycles from all major labs create ongoing uncertainty in which company holds the single top position by December 31.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market.
If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes."
The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
交易量
$142,666結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Apr 30, 2026, 3:22 PM ET**Anthropic and OpenAI currently lead the frontier AI race as of early September 2026, with their latest models trading top spots across major benchmarks.** Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1, Opus 5, and Mythos variants frequently top composite intelligence indices, SWE-bench Verified coding scores, and agentic evaluations like Terminal-Bench. OpenAI countered with the September 3–4 launch of GPT-6 Astra, marketed as its most advanced model yet for coding, computer use, and alignment, though independent scores show it competitive with or slightly behind Anthropic’s leaders on several metrics. Google’s Gemini 3.x Flash series excels in speed and value but trails on frontier reasoning. xAI’s Grok 4.6 and Chinese labs (Qwen, GLM, Kimi) deliver strong value and occasional arena wins but rarely claim overall #1. Rapid weekly releases, benchmark volatility, and year-end model cycles from all major labs create ongoing uncertainty in which company holds the single top position by December 31.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions