The dominant 97.5% market-implied probability for a 70-71°F low in New York City on July 31 stems from official overnight observations at stations such as LaGuardia Airport and Central Park, which recorded a minimum in that narrow band under clear, humid conditions. July climatology places typical NYC lows near 69-71°F, and 2026 patterns aligned closely with seasonal baselines without significant cool-air advection or radiational cooling that would push readings lower. Forecasters from the National Weather Service noted stable high pressure and dew points in the upper 60s, limiting overnight drops. Traders assigned negligible odds to outcomes below 68°F or above 72°F because model consensus and real-time station data converged tightly; only an anomalous measurement revision or station-specific microclimate shift could realistically alter resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於7月31日是紐約市的最低溫度嗎？
7月31日是紐約市的最低溫度嗎？
70-71華氏度 97.5%
68-69°F 2.2%
57°F或以下 <1%
58-59°F <1%
$9,350 交易量
$9,350 交易量
2026-07-31
57°F或以下
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
<1%
62-63°F
<1%
64-65°F
<1%
66-67°F
<1%
68-69°F
2%
70-71華氏度
98%
72-73華氏度
<1%
74-75°F
<1%
76°F或更高
<1%
70-71華氏度 97.5%
68-69°F 2.2%
57°F或以下 <1%
58-59°F <1%
$9,350 交易量
$9,350 交易量
2026-07-31
57°F或以下
$271 交易量
<1%
58-59°F
$361 交易量
<1%
60-61°F
$361 交易量
<1%
62-63°F
$414 交易量
<1%
64-65°F
$548 交易量
<1%
66-67°F
$1,079 交易量
<1%
68-69°F
$1,981 交易量
2%
70-71華氏度
$1,800 交易量
98%
72-73華氏度
$1,054 交易量
<1%
74-75°F
$960 交易量
<1%
76°F或更高
$521 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The dominant 97.5% market-implied probability for a 70-71°F low in New York City on July 31 stems from official overnight observations at stations such as LaGuardia Airport and Central Park, which recorded a minimum in that narrow band under clear, humid conditions. July climatology places typical NYC lows near 69-71°F, and 2026 patterns aligned closely with seasonal baselines without significant cool-air advection or radiational cooling that would push readings lower. Forecasters from the National Weather Service noted stable high pressure and dew points in the upper 60s, limiting overnight drops. Traders assigned negligible odds to outcomes below 68°F or above 72°F because model consensus and real-time station data converged tightly; only an anomalous measurement revision or station-specific microclimate shift could realistically alter resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 29, 2026, 9:30 PM ET
交易量
$9,350結束日期
2026-07-31市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 9:30 PM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The dominant 97.5% market-implied probability for a 70-71°F low in New York City on July 31 stems from official overnight observations at stations such as LaGuardia Airport and Central Park, which recorded a minimum in that narrow band under clear, humid conditions. July climatology places typical NYC lows near 69-71°F, and 2026 patterns aligned closely with seasonal baselines without significant cool-air advection or radiational cooling that would push readings lower. Forecasters from the National Weather Service noted stable high pressure and dew points in the upper 60s, limiting overnight drops. Traders assigned negligible odds to outcomes below 68°F or above 72°F because model consensus and real-time station data converged tightly; only an anomalous measurement revision or station-specific microclimate shift could realistically alter resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 31 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$9,350結束日期
2026-07-31市場開放時間
Jul 29, 2026, 9:30 PM ETThe dominant 97.5% market-implied probability for a 70-71°F low in New York City on July 31 stems from official overnight observations at stations such as LaGuardia Airport and Central Park, which recorded a minimum in that narrow band under clear, humid conditions. July climatology places typical NYC lows near 69-71°F, and 2026 patterns aligned closely with seasonal baselines without significant cool-air advection or radiational cooling that would push readings lower. Forecasters from the National Weather Service noted stable high pressure and dew points in the upper 60s, limiting overnight drops. Traders assigned negligible odds to outcomes below 68°F or above 72°F because model consensus and real-time station data converged tightly; only an anomalous measurement revision or station-specific microclimate shift could realistically alter resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions