Trader consensus around a 98.2% implied probability that Jerome Powell avoids jail before 2027 reflects the April 2026 termination of the sole active DOJ probe into Fed headquarters renovation costs and testimony, with no charges filed and the matter referred to the Fed inspector general. Elevated legal thresholds for indicting a sitting or recently departed central bank chair, combined with institutional norms protecting monetary policy independence, underpin the market's assessment. Recent economic data releases and FOMC communications have shown no new catalysts for scrutiny. Tail risks remain remote but could include unforeseen congressional findings or politically motivated referrals post-term, though these would require substantial new evidence to shift probabilities materially before resolution.