Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026 alongside a softening labor market has created balanced trader sentiment around a potential 2026 Fed rate hike, with the market-implied probability for "Yes" holding near 50.5%. The federal funds rate remains at 3.50%-3.75% after consecutive holds, as July job losses shifted near-term futures pricing toward stability through year-end while futures markets embed a gradual path toward 4% by late 2027. Dissenting FOMC votes and revised economist forecasts for a possible December hike reflect concerns over energy-driven price pressures from geopolitical tensions, tempered by cooling core CPI at 2.5%. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI releases will likely serve as key swing factors.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
51% 機率
$7,644,212 交易量
$7,644,212 交易量
2026-12-08
是
51% 機率
$7,644,212 交易量
$7,644,212 交易量
2026-12-08
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026 alongside a softening labor market has created balanced trader sentiment around a potential 2026 Fed rate hike, with the market-implied probability for "Yes" holding near 50.5%. The federal funds rate remains at 3.50%-3.75% after consecutive holds, as July job losses shifted near-term futures pricing toward stability through year-end while futures markets embed a gradual path toward 4% by late 2027. Dissenting FOMC votes and revised economist forecasts for a possible December hike reflect concerns over energy-driven price pressures from geopolitical tensions, tempered by cooling core CPI at 2.5%. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI releases will likely serve as key swing factors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ET
交易量
$7,644,212結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026 alongside a softening labor market has created balanced trader sentiment around a potential 2026 Fed rate hike, with the market-implied probability for "Yes" holding near 50.5%. The federal funds rate remains at 3.50%-3.75% after consecutive holds, as July job losses shifted near-term futures pricing toward stability through year-end while futures markets embed a gradual path toward 4% by late 2027. Dissenting FOMC votes and revised economist forecasts for a possible December hike reflect concerns over energy-driven price pressures from geopolitical tensions, tempered by cooling core CPI at 2.5%. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI releases will likely serve as key swing factors.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between January 1, 2026 and the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8-9, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$7,644,212結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Dec 10, 2025, 4:09 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent inflation at 3.4% year-over-year in July 2026 alongside a softening labor market has created balanced trader sentiment around a potential 2026 Fed rate hike, with the market-implied probability for "Yes" holding near 50.5%. The federal funds rate remains at 3.50%-3.75% after consecutive holds, as July job losses shifted near-term futures pricing toward stability through year-end while futures markets embed a gradual path toward 4% by late 2027. Dissenting FOMC votes and revised economist forecasts for a possible December hike reflect concerns over energy-driven price pressures from geopolitical tensions, tempered by cooling core CPI at 2.5%. The September 15-16 FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI releases will likely serve as key swing factors.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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