Trump's appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair in May 2026, combined with the Supreme Court's June rulings shielding Federal Reserve officials from at-will removal while expanding presidential authority over other agencies, underpins the 94.3% market-implied probability that no firing attempt occurs this year. Traders cite the absence of direct attacks on Warsh—despite escalating White House pressure for rate cuts amid sticky inflation above the 2% target and September FOMC deliberations—and Warsh's positioning as an institutionalist focused on price stability. Key swing factors include any post-meeting showdown if the Fed hikes rates or persistent administration criticism that could test the legal firewall before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於6% 機率
$14,169 交易量
$14,169 交易量
2026-12-31
6% 機率
$14,169 交易量
$14,169 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump's appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair in May 2026, combined with the Supreme Court's June rulings shielding Federal Reserve officials from at-will removal while expanding presidential authority over other agencies, underpins the 94.3% market-implied probability that no firing attempt occurs this year. Traders cite the absence of direct attacks on Warsh—despite escalating White House pressure for rate cuts amid sticky inflation above the 2% target and September FOMC deliberations—and Warsh's positioning as an institutionalist focused on price stability. Key swing factors include any post-meeting showdown if the Fed hikes rates or persistent administration criticism that could test the legal firewall before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ET
交易量
$14,169結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETThis market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Trump's appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair in May 2026, combined with the Supreme Court's June rulings shielding Federal Reserve officials from at-will removal while expanding presidential authority over other agencies, underpins the 94.3% market-implied probability that no firing attempt occurs this year. Traders cite the absence of direct attacks on Warsh—despite escalating White House pressure for rate cuts amid sticky inflation above the 2% target and September FOMC deliberations—and Warsh's positioning as an institutionalist focused on price stability. Key swing factors include any post-meeting showdown if the Fed hikes rates or persistent administration criticism that could test the legal firewall before year-end.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Donald Trump publicly and unequivocally announces that he is removing Kevin Warsh as Chair of the Federal Reserve, or takes formal action toward doing so, such as issuing a directive or formal request, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Statements which are contingent (e.g. “Warsh must step down or lower rates”), statements of intent (e.g. “I am planning to fire Warsh”) or other informal statements which are not unequivocal will not qualify.
If Kevin Warsh resigns or otherwise formally departs his role as Chair of the Federal Reserve prior to a qualifying action, this market will immediately resolve to "No".
Attempts to remove Warsh from his role as a member of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors will not alone qualify.
The resolution source will be official information from Donald Trump however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$14,169結束日期
2027-01-01市場開放時間
Jul 24, 2026, 11:56 AM ETTrump's appointment of Kevin Warsh as Fed chair in May 2026, combined with the Supreme Court's June rulings shielding Federal Reserve officials from at-will removal while expanding presidential authority over other agencies, underpins the 94.3% market-implied probability that no firing attempt occurs this year. Traders cite the absence of direct attacks on Warsh—despite escalating White House pressure for rate cuts amid sticky inflation above the 2% target and September FOMC deliberations—and Warsh's positioning as an institutionalist focused on price stability. Key swing factors include any post-meeting showdown if the Fed hikes rates or persistent administration criticism that could test the legal firewall before year-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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