Recent inflation readings near 4% and persistent supply-side pressures from tariffs and Middle East energy shocks have kept the federal funds rate at the 3.50-3.75% range through mid-2026, supporting trader expectations for limited further tightening. With the FOMC holding steady at the July meeting and nine of 19 officials projecting at least one 25 basis point hike by year-end in updated dot plots, markets assign the highest implied probability to exactly one additional increase in 2026. Stable labor conditions, with unemployment near 4.1% and steady job gains, alongside resilient growth and productivity, reinforce the case against aggressive hikes, while the upcoming September 16 decision and subsequent data releases on CPI and employment remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution toward zero or two moves.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
How many Fed rate hikes in 2026?
1 (25 bps) 43%
0 (0 bps) 30%
2 (50 bps) 23%
3次（75個基點） 4.7%
$287,499 交易量
$287,499 交易量
2026-12-31
0 (0 bps)
30%
1 (25 bps)
43%
2 (50 bps)
23%
3次（75個基點）
5%
4 (100 bps)
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
1%
1 (25 bps) 43%
0 (0 bps) 30%
2 (50 bps) 23%
3次（75個基點） 4.7%
$287,499 交易量
$287,499 交易量
2026-12-31
0 (0 bps)
$101,602 交易量
30%
1 (25 bps)
$47,179 交易量
43%
2 (50 bps)
$68,691 交易量
23%
3次（75個基點）
$31,570 交易量
5%
4 (100 bps)
$20,984 交易量
1%
5+ (125+ bps)
$17,474 交易量
1%
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent inflation readings near 4% and persistent supply-side pressures from tariffs and Middle East energy shocks have kept the federal funds rate at the 3.50-3.75% range through mid-2026, supporting trader expectations for limited further tightening. With the FOMC holding steady at the July meeting and nine of 19 officials projecting at least one 25 basis point hike by year-end in updated dot plots, markets assign the highest implied probability to exactly one additional increase in 2026. Stable labor conditions, with unemployment near 4.1% and steady job gains, alongside resilient growth and productivity, reinforce the case against aggressive hikes, while the upcoming September 16 decision and subsequent data releases on CPI and employment remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution toward zero or two moves.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
市場開放時間： Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ET
交易量
$287,499結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.Recent inflation readings near 4% and persistent supply-side pressures from tariffs and Middle East energy shocks have kept the federal funds rate at the 3.50-3.75% range through mid-2026, supporting trader expectations for limited further tightening. With the FOMC holding steady at the July meeting and nine of 19 officials projecting at least one 25 basis point hike by year-end in updated dot plots, markets assign the highest implied probability to exactly one additional increase in 2026. Stable labor conditions, with unemployment near 4.1% and steady job gains, alongside resilient growth and productivity, reinforce the case against aggressive hikes, while the upcoming September 16 decision and subsequent data releases on CPI and employment remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution toward zero or two moves.
This market will resolve according to the exact amount of hikes of 25 basis points in 2026 by the Fed (including any hikes made during the December meeting).
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
Emergency rate hikes outside of scheduled FOMC meetings will also count toward the total number of hikes in 2026. This market will remain open until December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, to account for any such emergency actions.
For example, if the Fed hikes rates by 50 bps after a meeting, it would be considered 2 hikes (of 25 bps each).
This market will resolve early to "No" if the specified number of hikes becomes impossible — i.e., if more hikes have already occurred than the strike in question.
Note that hikes between 1–24 bps (inclusive) will also be considered 1 rate hike.
The resolution source for this market will be FOMC statements after meetings scheduled in 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm. The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
交易量
$287,499結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Jun 23, 2026, 3:39 PM ETRecent inflation readings near 4% and persistent supply-side pressures from tariffs and Middle East energy shocks have kept the federal funds rate at the 3.50-3.75% range through mid-2026, supporting trader expectations for limited further tightening. With the FOMC holding steady at the July meeting and nine of 19 officials projecting at least one 25 basis point hike by year-end in updated dot plots, markets assign the highest implied probability to exactly one additional increase in 2026. Stable labor conditions, with unemployment near 4.1% and steady job gains, alongside resilient growth and productivity, reinforce the case against aggressive hikes, while the upcoming September 16 decision and subsequent data releases on CPI and employment remain key near-term catalysts that could shift the distribution toward zero or two moves.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions