The 94% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 stems primarily from the solid U.S. economic expansion and stable labor market, with the unemployment rate at 4.1% in July 2026 and the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75%. July CPI rose just 0.1% month-over-month to 3.4% year-over-year, showing modest disinflation amid resilient growth and productivity gains, while the FOMC's recent 9-3 decision to pause and forward guidance signal a higher-for-longer stance rather than aggressive easing. Traders price in potential hikes or holds through late 2026 given these conditions. A sharp recession, major geopolitical shock disrupting energy markets, or sudden financial stress could still prompt an unscheduled cut, though current data make such triggers unlikely in the near term.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
6% 機率
$139,484 交易量
$139,484 交易量
2026-12-31
是
6% 機率
$139,484 交易量
$139,484 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The 94% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 stems primarily from the solid U.S. economic expansion and stable labor market, with the unemployment rate at 4.1% in July 2026 and the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75%. July CPI rose just 0.1% month-over-month to 3.4% year-over-year, showing modest disinflation amid resilient growth and productivity gains, while the FOMC's recent 9-3 decision to pause and forward guidance signal a higher-for-longer stance rather than aggressive easing. Traders price in potential hikes or holds through late 2026 given these conditions. A sharp recession, major geopolitical shock disrupting energy markets, or sudden financial stress could still prompt an unscheduled cut, though current data make such triggers unlikely in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
市場開放時間： Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
交易量
$139,484結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The 94% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 stems primarily from the solid U.S. economic expansion and stable labor market, with the unemployment rate at 4.1% in July 2026 and the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75%. July CPI rose just 0.1% month-over-month to 3.4% year-over-year, showing modest disinflation amid resilient growth and productivity gains, while the FOMC's recent 9-3 decision to pause and forward guidance signal a higher-for-longer stance rather than aggressive easing. Traders price in potential hikes or holds through late 2026 given these conditions. A sharp recession, major geopolitical shock disrupting energy markets, or sudden financial stress could still prompt an unscheduled cut, though current data make such triggers unlikely in the near term.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
交易量
$139,484結束日期
2026-12-31市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The 94% market-implied probability against a Federal Reserve emergency rate cut before 2027 stems primarily from the solid U.S. economic expansion and stable labor market, with the unemployment rate at 4.1% in July 2026 and the federal funds rate held at 3.50–3.75%. July CPI rose just 0.1% month-over-month to 3.4% year-over-year, showing modest disinflation amid resilient growth and productivity gains, while the FOMC's recent 9-3 decision to pause and forward guidance signal a higher-for-longer stance rather than aggressive easing. Traders price in potential hikes or holds through late 2026 given these conditions. A sharp recession, major geopolitical shock disrupting energy markets, or sudden financial stress could still prompt an unscheduled cut, though current data make such triggers unlikely in the near term.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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