Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.1% in July 2026 has anchored trader expectations for a steady federal funds rate at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. With the target range already at 3.50-3.75%, recent data releases and FOMC communications under Chair Kevin Warsh have reinforced a cautious stance, shifting focus from earlier cut expectations toward potential tightening if price pressures reaccelerate. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with no change at 71.5% and a 25 basis point hike at 24.5%, as participants weigh upcoming September CPI and employment figures against the Fed’s dual mandate. Hawkish dots in prior projections and energy price volatility have elevated the hike probability modestly while keeping cuts below 6% combined.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於無變化 72%
上調25個基點 25%
下調25個基點 4.3%
下調超過50個基點 1.0%
$681,015 交易量
$681,015 交易量
2026-10-28
下調超過50個基點
1%
下調25個基點
4%
無變化
72%
上調25個基點
25%
上調50個基點以上
1%
無變化 72%
上調25個基點 25%
下調25個基點 4.3%
下調超過50個基點 1.0%
$681,015 交易量
$681,015 交易量
2026-10-28
下調超過50個基點
$128,906 交易量
1%
下調25個基點
$210,860 交易量
4%
無變化
$141,991 交易量
72%
上調25個基點
$139,960 交易量
25%
上調50個基點以上
$59,298 交易量
1%
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.1% in July 2026 has anchored trader expectations for a steady federal funds rate at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. With the target range already at 3.50-3.75%, recent data releases and FOMC communications under Chair Kevin Warsh have reinforced a cautious stance, shifting focus from earlier cut expectations toward potential tightening if price pressures reaccelerate. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with no change at 71.5% and a 25 basis point hike at 24.5%, as participants weigh upcoming September CPI and employment figures against the Fed’s dual mandate. Hawkish dots in prior projections and energy price volatility have elevated the hike probability modestly while keeping cuts below 6% combined.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
市場開放時間： Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
交易量
$681,015結束日期
2026-10-28市場開放時間
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.1% in July 2026 has anchored trader expectations for a steady federal funds rate at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. With the target range already at 3.50-3.75%, recent data releases and FOMC communications under Chair Kevin Warsh have reinforced a cautious stance, shifting focus from earlier cut expectations toward potential tightening if price pressures reaccelerate. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with no change at 71.5% and a 25 basis point hike at 24.5%, as participants weigh upcoming September CPI and employment figures against the Fed’s dual mandate. Hawkish dots in prior projections and energy price volatility have elevated the hike probability modestly while keeping cuts below 6% combined.
The FED interest rates are defined in this market by the upper bound of the target federal funds range. The decisions on the target federal funds range are made by the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meetings.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Federal Reserve's October 2026 meeting.
If the target federal funds rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps)
The resolution source for this market is the FOMC’s statement after its meeting scheduled for October 27-28, 2026 according to the official calendar: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomccalendars.htm.
The level and change of the target federal funds rate is also published at the official website of the Federal Reserve at https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm.
This market may resolve as soon as the FOMC’s statement for their October meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.
交易量
$681,015結束日期
2026-10-28市場開放時間
Jun 17, 2026, 7:21 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Persistent inflation near 3.4% year-over-year alongside a resilient labor market with unemployment at 4.1% in July 2026 has anchored trader expectations for a steady federal funds rate at the October 27-28 FOMC meeting. With the target range already at 3.50-3.75%, recent data releases and FOMC communications under Chair Kevin Warsh have reinforced a cautious stance, shifting focus from earlier cut expectations toward potential tightening if price pressures reaccelerate. Market-implied odds reflect this balance, with no change at 71.5% and a 25 basis point hike at 24.5%, as participants weigh upcoming September CPI and employment figures against the Fed’s dual mandate. Hawkish dots in prior projections and energy price volatility have elevated the hike probability modestly while keeping cuts below 6% combined.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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