Recent inflation data showing acceleration to around 6.3% annually by late August, alongside steady lending growth and one-off price pressures from fuel costs, have prompted the Bank of Russia to adopt a more cautious approach ahead of its September 11 meeting. After successive cuts that brought the key rate to 14% in July, the central bank has signaled reduced scope for further easing in the near term due to pro-inflationary risks, including fiscal expansion and inflation expectations. Analyst consensus and market pricing reflect this, favoring a hold as the base case while leaving limited room for a modest reduction if incoming data improves. An outright hike remains improbable given the ongoing disinflation trajectory toward the 4% target over the medium term.