Recent strength in the August nonfarm payrolls report, which printed 162,000 against consensus near 56,000 with upward revisions to prior months and unemployment holding at 4.1%, has reinforced views of labor-market resilience heading into September. This outcome, driven by gains in leisure/hospitality and local government education, has narrowed the range of likely outcomes for the upcoming release while keeping the 50k–150k band competitive amid seasonal payback risks and potential drags from policy changes such as TPS terminations. Moderate wage growth at 3.1% year-over-year and steady labor-force participation further support trader focus on whether hiring sustains above the 100k break-even level or reverts toward softer monthly averages seen earlier in 2026. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI data remain key swing factors influencing implied probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於5萬至10萬 26%
10萬到15萬 23%
0到5萬 20%
-5萬至0 13%
最新
最新
2026-10-02
<-5萬
9%
-5萬至0
13%
0到5萬
20%
5萬至10萬
26%
10萬到15萬
23%
15萬至20萬
5%
20萬以上
5%
5萬至10萬 26%
10萬到15萬 23%
0到5萬 20%
-5萬至0 13%
最新
最新
2026-10-02
<-5萬
$248 交易量
9%
-5萬至0
$337 交易量
13%
0到5萬
$199 交易量
20%
5萬至10萬
$159 交易量
26%
10萬到15萬
$261 交易量
23%
15萬至20萬
$260 交易量
5%
20萬以上
$459 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for September 2026, scheduled to be released on October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent strength in the August nonfarm payrolls report, which printed 162,000 against consensus near 56,000 with upward revisions to prior months and unemployment holding at 4.1%, has reinforced views of labor-market resilience heading into September. This outcome, driven by gains in leisure/hospitality and local government education, has narrowed the range of likely outcomes for the upcoming release while keeping the 50k–150k band competitive amid seasonal payback risks and potential drags from policy changes such as TPS terminations. Moderate wage growth at 3.1% year-over-year and steady labor-force participation further support trader focus on whether hiring sustains above the 100k break-even level or reverts toward softer monthly averages seen earlier in 2026. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI data remain key swing factors influencing implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for September 2026, scheduled to be released on October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
市場開放時間： Sep 4, 2026, 12:37 PM ET
交易量
$1,923結束日期
2026-10-03市場開放時間
Sep 4, 2026, 12:37 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for September 2026, scheduled to be released on October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htmRecent strength in the August nonfarm payrolls report, which printed 162,000 against consensus near 56,000 with upward revisions to prior months and unemployment holding at 4.1%, has reinforced views of labor-market resilience heading into September. This outcome, driven by gains in leisure/hospitality and local government education, has narrowed the range of likely outcomes for the upcoming release while keeping the 50k–150k band competitive amid seasonal payback risks and potential drags from policy changes such as TPS terminations. Moderate wage growth at 3.1% year-over-year and steady labor-force participation further support trader focus on whether hiring sustains above the 100k break-even level or reverts toward softer monthly averages seen earlier in 2026. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI data remain key swing factors influencing implied probabilities.
This market will resolve according to the change in the total nonfarm payroll employment reported by the BLS "Employment Situation Summary" for September 2026, scheduled to be released on October 2, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The BLS "Employment Situation Summary" may be found here: https://www.bls.gov/bls/newsrels.htm
交易量
$1,923結束日期
2026-10-03市場開放時間
Sep 4, 2026, 12:37 PM ETRecent strength in the August nonfarm payrolls report, which printed 162,000 against consensus near 56,000 with upward revisions to prior months and unemployment holding at 4.1%, has reinforced views of labor-market resilience heading into September. This outcome, driven by gains in leisure/hospitality and local government education, has narrowed the range of likely outcomes for the upcoming release while keeping the 50k–150k band competitive amid seasonal payback risks and potential drags from policy changes such as TPS terminations. Moderate wage growth at 3.1% year-over-year and steady labor-force participation further support trader focus on whether hiring sustains above the 100k break-even level or reverts toward softer monthly averages seen earlier in 2026. The September FOMC meeting and upcoming CPI data remain key swing factors influencing implied probabilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions