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icon for 2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？
經濟艙·商務

2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？

icon for 2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？
經濟艙·商務

2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？

$225,341 交易量

2026-12-31
Polymarket

$225,341 交易量

Polymarket

3.9%

$44,197 交易量

12%

3.8%

$41,312 交易量

5%

3.7%

$27,383 交易量

2%

3.6%

$5,587 交易量

5%

3.5%

$33,052 交易量

2%

3.0%

$917 交易量

2%

2.0%

$564 交易量

5%

1.0%

$40,570 交易量

2%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield currently trades near 4.73 percent amid sticky inflation readings and market-implied expectations for one or two additional Federal Reserve rate hikes by year-end 2026. Elevated term premiums reflect heightened supply from fiscal deficits, resilient economic growth, and concerns over future supply shocks, pushing longer-term yields higher despite prior policy easing. Recent CPI and PPI data have shown modest moderation but remain above target, while labor market indicators continue to support a cautious Fed stance. Traders will monitor the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases for signals on the policy path, which could influence whether yields test lower levels before 2027 or remain range-bound near recent highs.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
交易量
$225,341
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).The 10-year Treasury yield currently trades near 4.73 percent amid sticky inflation readings and market-implied expectations for one or two additional Federal Reserve rate hikes by year-end 2026. Elevated term premiums reflect heightened supply from fiscal deficits, resilient economic growth, and concerns over future supply shocks, pushing longer-term yields higher despite prior policy easing. Recent CPI and PPI data have shown modest moderation but remain above target, while labor market indicators continue to support a cautious Fed stance. Traders will monitor the September FOMC meeting and upcoming inflation releases for signals on the policy path, which could influence whether yields test lower levels before 2027 or remain range-bound near recent highs.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
交易量
$225,341
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 6:01 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield is lower than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

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Frequently Asked Questions

"2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 9 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4.0%" at 100%, followed by "3.9%" at 12%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？" has generated $225.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？," browse the 9 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？" is "4.0%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "3.9%" at 12%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率有多低？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.