Skip to main content
icon for 2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？
金融·Jerome Powell

2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？

icon for 2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？
金融·Jerome Powell

2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？

12月 31

12月 31

$286,324 交易量

2026-12-31
Polymarket

$286,324 交易量

Polymarket

4.8%

$59,319 交易量

69%

5.0%

$81,291 交易量

35%

5.2%

$26,278 交易量

5%

5.5%

$5,832 交易量

7%

5.7%

$4,234 交易量

6%

6.0%

$3,084 交易量

6%

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent economic resilience and sticky inflation around 3.8% CPI have pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.73% as of August 18, 2026, near 2026 highs, reflecting higher real rates and a modest term premium amid resilient growth and labor market data. Trader sentiment in related prediction markets prices a limited peak before 2027, consistent with expectations for the Fed to deliver modest rate cuts toward a 3-3.25% funds rate by year-end while maintaining a slightly restrictive stance under evolving FOMC leadership. Key catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, employment reports, and FOMC communications that could alter rate path expectations and influence Treasury supply dynamics or risk appetite. Market-implied probabilities aggregate capital-weighted views on these macroeconomic forces rather than point forecasts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
交易量
$286,324
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between December 9, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).Recent economic resilience and sticky inflation around 3.8% CPI have pushed the 10-year Treasury yield to approximately 4.73% as of August 18, 2026, near 2026 highs, reflecting higher real rates and a modest term premium amid resilient growth and labor market data. Trader sentiment in related prediction markets prices a limited peak before 2027, consistent with expectations for the Fed to deliver modest rate cuts toward a 3-3.25% funds rate by year-end while maintaining a slightly restrictive stance under evolving FOMC leadership. Key catalysts include upcoming CPI releases, employment reports, and FOMC communications that could alter rate path expectations and influence Treasury supply dynamics or risk appetite. Market-implied probabilities aggregate capital-weighted views on these macroeconomic forces rather than point forecasts.

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No".

The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
交易量
$286,324
結束日期
2026-12-31
市場開放時間
Nov 12, 2025, 5:48 PM ET

Resolver

0x65070BE91...
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

相關

icon for 10年期美國國債收益率會在2027年前跌破3.9%嗎？

10年期美國國債收益率會在2027年前跌破3.9%嗎？

12%
是
icon for 美國國債會在2027年前達到40兆美元嗎？

美國國債會在2027年前達到40兆美元嗎？

100%
是
icon for 美國會在2027年違約債務嗎？

美國會在2027年違約債務嗎？

2%
是

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 10 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "4.3%" at 100%, followed by "4.4%" at 100%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 100¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？" has generated $286.3K in total trading volume since the market launched on Nov 12, 2025. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？," browse the 10 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？" is "4.3%" at 100%, meaning the market assigns a 100% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "4.4%" at 100%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "2027年之前， 10年期美國國庫券孳息率會走多高？" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.