Ongoing Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked vessels, including strikes near Yanbu and the Jizan refinery in late August, have sustained elevated war-risk premiums and prompted selective rerouting or AIS-dark transits, compressing mainstream tanker flows through Bab el-Mandeb while supporting resilient overall volumes from other operators. Weekly crossing data from late August showed 48- to 72-hour periods ranging 60–81 vessels, consistent with full-week totals near 180–220 when including dark movements and non-tanker traffic. This keeps the 170–189 and 190–209 bins closely contested, as modest fluctuations in daily activity—driven by attack timing, shadow-fleet participation, and Suez recovery—can shift the outcome. Key differentiators include visibility improvements from fewer dark transits versus persistent Saudi export constraints, with any escalation or lull in incidents before resolution likely determining the final tally.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於190-209 40%
170-189 35%
210-229 22%
230+ 5%
$34,574 交易量
$34,574 交易量
2026-09-06
少於170
3%
170-189
35%
190-209
40%
210-229
22%
230+
5%
190-209 40%
170-189 35%
210-229 22%
230+ 5%
$34,574 交易量
$34,574 交易量
2026-09-06
少於170
$1,303 交易量
3%
170-189
$3,915 交易量
35%
190-209
$5,017 交易量
40%
210-229
$10,157 交易量
22%
230+
$14,182 交易量
5%
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked vessels, including strikes near Yanbu and the Jizan refinery in late August, have sustained elevated war-risk premiums and prompted selective rerouting or AIS-dark transits, compressing mainstream tanker flows through Bab el-Mandeb while supporting resilient overall volumes from other operators. Weekly crossing data from late August showed 48- to 72-hour periods ranging 60–81 vessels, consistent with full-week totals near 180–220 when including dark movements and non-tanker traffic. This keeps the 170–189 and 190–209 bins closely contested, as modest fluctuations in daily activity—driven by attack timing, shadow-fleet participation, and Suez recovery—can shift the outcome. Key differentiators include visibility improvements from fewer dark transits versus persistent Saudi export constraints, with any escalation or lull in incidents before resolution likely determining the final tally.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
市場開放時間： Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ET
交易量
$34,574結束日期
2026-09-06市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETThis market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked vessels, including strikes near Yanbu and the Jizan refinery in late August, have sustained elevated war-risk premiums and prompted selective rerouting or AIS-dark transits, compressing mainstream tanker flows through Bab el-Mandeb while supporting resilient overall volumes from other operators. Weekly crossing data from late August showed 48- to 72-hour periods ranging 60–81 vessels, consistent with full-week totals near 180–220 when including dark movements and non-tanker traffic. This keeps the 170–189 and 190–209 bins closely contested, as modest fluctuations in daily activity—driven by attack timing, shadow-fleet participation, and Suez recovery—can shift the outcome. Key differentiators include visibility improvements from fewer dark transits versus persistent Saudi export constraints, with any escalation or lull in incidents before resolution likely determining the final tally.
This market will resolve according to the total number of transit calls that IMF Portwatch reports for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait for all days from August 31, 2026, through September 6, 2026, inclusive.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as all relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
Only revisions to previously published data points made before all relevant data has been published will be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
交易量
$34,574結束日期
2026-09-06市場開放時間
Aug 28, 2026, 6:08 PM ETOngoing Houthi attacks on Saudi-linked vessels, including strikes near Yanbu and the Jizan refinery in late August, have sustained elevated war-risk premiums and prompted selective rerouting or AIS-dark transits, compressing mainstream tanker flows through Bab el-Mandeb while supporting resilient overall volumes from other operators. Weekly crossing data from late August showed 48- to 72-hour periods ranging 60–81 vessels, consistent with full-week totals near 180–220 when including dark movements and non-tanker traffic. This keeps the 170–189 and 190–209 bins closely contested, as modest fluctuations in daily activity—driven by attack timing, shadow-fleet participation, and Suez recovery—can shift the outcome. Key differentiators include visibility improvements from fewer dark transits versus persistent Saudi export constraints, with any escalation or lull in incidents before resolution likely determining the final tally.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions