The commanding 91% market probability on LDPR securing fewer than 45 seats reflects the party's established role as a controlled systemic opposition force within Russia's managed electoral system. With 22 seats currently held and consistent historical results in the 20-30 seat range under the mixed proportional and single-member district framework, recent state-affiliated polling (FOM, WCIOM) showing 11-14% support has not shifted trader expectations ahead of the September 18-20 vote. Internal pressures, including regional leadership prosecutions and the post-Zhirinovsky transition under Leonid Slutsky, have constrained organizational strength despite the party's June congress and social-focused platform. Scenarios that could alter outcomes include Kremlin-directed adjustments to single-member district allocations or unanticipated voter shifts in the final campaign weeks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於少於45 91%
45–54 4.3%
55–64 3.5%
65–74 3.0%
最新
最新
2026-09-20
少於45
91%
45–54
4%
55–64
4%
65–74
3%
75–84
2%
85–94
2%
95+
2%
少於45 91%
45–54 4.3%
55–64 3.5%
65–74 3.0%
最新
最新
2026-09-20
少於45
$1,254 交易量
91%
45–54
$183 交易量
4%
55–64
$138 交易量
4%
65–74
$158 交易量
3%
75–84
$117 交易量
2%
85–94
$292 交易量
2%
95+
$295 交易量
2%
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.The commanding 91% market probability on LDPR securing fewer than 45 seats reflects the party's established role as a controlled systemic opposition force within Russia's managed electoral system. With 22 seats currently held and consistent historical results in the 20-30 seat range under the mixed proportional and single-member district framework, recent state-affiliated polling (FOM, WCIOM) showing 11-14% support has not shifted trader expectations ahead of the September 18-20 vote. Internal pressures, including regional leadership prosecutions and the post-Zhirinovsky transition under Leonid Slutsky, have constrained organizational strength despite the party's June congress and social-focused platform. Scenarios that could alter outcomes include Kremlin-directed adjustments to single-member district allocations or unanticipated voter shifts in the final campaign weeks.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
市場開放時間： Sep 1, 2026, 8:53 PM ET
交易量
$2,437結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 8:53 PM ETLegislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.The commanding 91% market probability on LDPR securing fewer than 45 seats reflects the party's established role as a controlled systemic opposition force within Russia's managed electoral system. With 22 seats currently held and consistent historical results in the 20-30 seat range under the mixed proportional and single-member district framework, recent state-affiliated polling (FOM, WCIOM) showing 11-14% support has not shifted trader expectations ahead of the September 18-20 vote. Internal pressures, including regional leadership prosecutions and the post-Zhirinovsky transition under Leonid Slutsky, have constrained organizational strength despite the party's June congress and social-focused platform. Scenarios that could alter outcomes include Kremlin-directed adjustments to single-member district allocations or unanticipated voter shifts in the final campaign weeks.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
交易量
$2,437結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 8:53 PM ETThe commanding 91% market probability on LDPR securing fewer than 45 seats reflects the party's established role as a controlled systemic opposition force within Russia's managed electoral system. With 22 seats currently held and consistent historical results in the 20-30 seat range under the mixed proportional and single-member district framework, recent state-affiliated polling (FOM, WCIOM) showing 11-14% support has not shifted trader expectations ahead of the September 18-20 vote. Internal pressures, including regional leadership prosecutions and the post-Zhirinovsky transition under Leonid Slutsky, have constrained organizational strength despite the party's June congress and social-focused platform. Scenarios that could alter outcomes include Kremlin-directed adjustments to single-member district allocations or unanticipated voter shifts in the final campaign weeks.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions