The September 2026 State Duma elections, scheduled for 18–20 September under Russia's mixed system of proportional party-list seats and single-member districts, explain the market's strong consensus around fewer than 35 seats for New People. Kremlin-aligned processes have long shaped outcomes to maintain United Russia dominance and limit gains by smaller parties, even as state polls show New People support in the 9–15% range. The party's current 15–16 seats, recent federal list approval, and regional group placements reflect incremental positioning without structural advantages to exceed established barriers like the 5% threshold or controlled mandate allocation. Scenarios that could alter this include major last-minute turnout shifts or adjustments in single-mandate results, though the short timeline to voting day constrains such possibilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於少於35 93%
35–44 4.5%
45–54 2.6%
65–74 2.0%
$10,296 交易量
$10,296 交易量
2026-09-20
少於35
93%
35–44
4%
45–54
3%
55–64
1%
65–74
2%
75–84
2%
85+
2%
少於35 93%
35–44 4.5%
45–54 2.6%
65–74 2.0%
$10,296 交易量
$10,296 交易量
2026-09-20
少於35
$4,672 交易量
93%
35–44
$4,658 交易量
4%
45–54
$86 交易量
3%
55–64
$93 交易量
1%
65–74
$148 交易量
2%
75–84
$206 交易量
2%
85+
$432 交易量
2%
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.The September 2026 State Duma elections, scheduled for 18–20 September under Russia's mixed system of proportional party-list seats and single-member districts, explain the market's strong consensus around fewer than 35 seats for New People. Kremlin-aligned processes have long shaped outcomes to maintain United Russia dominance and limit gains by smaller parties, even as state polls show New People support in the 9–15% range. The party's current 15–16 seats, recent federal list approval, and regional group placements reflect incremental positioning without structural advantages to exceed established barriers like the 5% threshold or controlled mandate allocation. Scenarios that could alter this include major last-minute turnout shifts or adjustments in single-mandate results, though the short timeline to voting day constrains such possibilities.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
市場開放時間： Sep 1, 2026, 8:54 PM ET
交易量
$10,296結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 8:54 PM ETLegislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.The September 2026 State Duma elections, scheduled for 18–20 September under Russia's mixed system of proportional party-list seats and single-member districts, explain the market's strong consensus around fewer than 35 seats for New People. Kremlin-aligned processes have long shaped outcomes to maintain United Russia dominance and limit gains by smaller parties, even as state polls show New People support in the 9–15% range. The party's current 15–16 seats, recent federal list approval, and regional group placements reflect incremental positioning without structural advantages to exceed established barriers like the 5% threshold or controlled mandate allocation. Scenarios that could alter this include major last-minute turnout shifts or adjustments in single-mandate results, though the short timeline to voting day constrains such possibilities.
Legislative elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
This market will resolve according to the number of seats held by New People (NL) in the State Duma as a result of the next Russian legislative election.
If results are not known definitively by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
This market’s resolution will be based solely on the number of seats won by the named party in the State Duma.
This market will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
交易量
$10,296結束日期
2026-09-20市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 8:54 PM ETThe September 2026 State Duma elections, scheduled for 18–20 September under Russia's mixed system of proportional party-list seats and single-member districts, explain the market's strong consensus around fewer than 35 seats for New People. Kremlin-aligned processes have long shaped outcomes to maintain United Russia dominance and limit gains by smaller parties, even as state polls show New People support in the 9–15% range. The party's current 15–16 seats, recent federal list approval, and regional group placements reflect incremental positioning without structural advantages to exceed established barriers like the 5% threshold or controlled mandate allocation. Scenarios that could alter this include major last-minute turnout shifts or adjustments in single-mandate results, though the short timeline to voting day constrains such possibilities.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions