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icon for 哪些政黨將在下一次俄羅斯國家杜馬選舉中贏得至少一個席位?

哪些政黨將在下一次俄羅斯國家杜馬選舉中贏得至少一個席位?

icon for 哪些政黨將在下一次俄羅斯國家杜馬選舉中贏得至少一個席位?

哪些政黨將在下一次俄羅斯國家杜馬選舉中贏得至少一個席位?

最新
2026-09-20
Polymarket

$3,765 交易量

Polymarket
icon for 公正俄羅斯-為真理黨(SRZP)

公正俄羅斯-為真理黨(SRZP)

$1,389 交易量

97%

icon for Rodina

Rodina

$752 交易量

85%

icon for 俄羅斯退休人士社會公正黨

俄羅斯退休人士社會公正黨

$1,260 交易量

7%

icon for 俄羅斯生態黨「綠黨」

俄羅斯生態黨「綠黨」

$364 交易量

6%

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed party receives at least one seat in the Russian State Duma as a result of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election. Otherwise, that market will resolve to “No”. Seats will be counted only where the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation attributes them to the named party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count. If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each market will resolve to “No”. These markets will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, they will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Russia's September 18–20, 2026, State Duma elections use a mixed system of proportional party-list voting with a 5% threshold and single-member districts. United Russia, the ruling party, maintains organizational dominance and leads recent polls by wide margins, positioning it to secure the largest share of seats through both mechanisms. The four main systemic opposition parties—Communist Party (KPRF), LDPR, A Just Russia, and New People—have registered lists and are projected in surveys to clear the threshold, aided by established regional structures and district nominations. Yabloko's federal list was disqualified by the Supreme Court in August following a legal challenge, limiting its prospects primarily to individual constituencies. No other parties have mounted competitive challenges in recent cycles, reflecting the narrowed field of registered participants and procedural requirements.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed party receives at least one seat in the Russian State Duma as a result of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election. Otherwise, that market will resolve to “No”.

Seats will be counted only where the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation attributes them to the named party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each market will resolve to “No”.

These markets will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, they will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed party receives at least one seat in the Russian State Duma as a result of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election. Otherwise, that market will resolve to “No”. Seats will be counted only where the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation attributes them to the named party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count. If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each market will resolve to “No”. These markets will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, they will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
交易量
$3,765
結束日期
2026-09-20
市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 8:42 PM ET
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed party receives at least one seat in the Russian State Duma as a result of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election. Otherwise, that market will resolve to “No”. Seats will be counted only where the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation attributes them to the named party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count. If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each market will resolve to “No”. These markets will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, they will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.Russia's September 18–20, 2026, State Duma elections use a mixed system of proportional party-list voting with a 5% threshold and single-member districts. United Russia, the ruling party, maintains organizational dominance and leads recent polls by wide margins, positioning it to secure the largest share of seats through both mechanisms. The four main systemic opposition parties—Communist Party (KPRF), LDPR, A Just Russia, and New People—have registered lists and are projected in surveys to clear the threshold, aided by established regional structures and district nominations. Yabloko's federal list was disqualified by the Supreme Court in August following a legal challenge, limiting its prospects primarily to individual constituencies. No other parties have mounted competitive challenges in recent cycles, reflecting the narrowed field of registered participants and procedural requirements.

Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026.

This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed party receives at least one seat in the Russian State Duma as a result of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election. Otherwise, that market will resolve to “No”.

Seats will be counted only where the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation attributes them to the named party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each market will resolve to “No”.

These markets will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, they will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed party receives at least one seat in the Russian State Duma as a result of the 2026 Russian parliamentary election. Otherwise, that market will resolve to “No”. Seats will be counted only where the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation attributes them to the named party. Seats attributed to another party or electoral designation will not count, regardless of electoral cooperation, endorsements, coalition agreements, or subsequent parliamentary-group arrangements. If a named party formally merges into a successor party before the election and does not contest separately, seats officially attributed to that successor party will count. If the results of this election are not definitively known by September 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, each market will resolve to “No”. These markets will resolve based on the results of this election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, they will resolve based solely on the official results reported by Russian government sources such as the Central Election Commission of the Russian Federation.
交易量
$3,765
結束日期
2026-09-20
市場開放時間
Sep 1, 2026, 8:42 PM ET

警惕外部連結哦。

Frequently Asked Questions

"哪些政黨將在下一次俄羅斯國家杜馬選舉中贏得至少一個席位?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 4 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "公正俄羅斯-為真理黨(SRZP)" at 97%, followed by "Rodina" at 85%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 97¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

"哪些政黨將在下一次俄羅斯國家杜馬選舉中贏得至少一個席位?" is a newly created market on Polymarket, launched on Sep 1, 2026. As an early market, this is your opportunity to be among the first traders to set the odds and establish the market's initial price signals. You can also bookmark this page to track volume and trading activity as the market gains traction over time.

To trade on "哪些政黨將在下一次俄羅斯國家杜馬選舉中贏得至少一個席位?," browse the 4 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "哪些政黨將在下一次俄羅斯國家杜馬選舉中贏得至少一個席位?" is "公正俄羅斯-為真理黨(SRZP)" at 97%, meaning the market assigns a 97% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Rodina" at 85%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "哪些政黨將在下一次俄羅斯國家杜馬選舉中贏得至少一個席位?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.