Recent forecasts from regional models and INMET guidance point to a maximum near 25–26 °C in São Paulo on August 15, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those values. Southern Hemisphere winter conditions feature modest daytime heating under variable cloud cover, with light southeasterly flow limiting strong warm advection while overnight radiational cooling keeps mornings near 17–19 °C. Model consensus shows only minor differences in afternoon insolation and boundary-layer mixing that can shift the peak by 1 °C, explaining why 24 °C and 27 °C retain meaningful but secondary shares. Historical August climatology centers on 24–25 °C highs, so current guidance reflects slightly above-average conditions without major synoptic drivers. Updated short-range runs and observational adjustments before local noon on the 15th remain the key near-term catalysts for any further probability shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月15日聖保羅的最高溫度？
8月15日聖保羅的最高溫度？
26°C 31%
25°C 29%
24°C 17%
27°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-15
20°C or below
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
7%
24°C
17%
25°C
29%
26°C
31%
27°C
10%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C or higher
1%
26°C 31%
25°C 29%
24°C 17%
27°C 10%
最新
最新
2026-08-15
20°C or below
$37 交易量
<1%
21°C
$98 交易量
<1%
22°C
$233 交易量
1%
23°C
$775 交易量
7%
24°C
$775 交易量
17%
25°C
$609 交易量
29%
26°C
$2,408 交易量
31%
27°C
$661 交易量
10%
28°C
$73 交易量
1%
29°C
$60 交易量
1%
30°C or higher
$197 交易量
1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from regional models and INMET guidance point to a maximum near 25–26 °C in São Paulo on August 15, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those values. Southern Hemisphere winter conditions feature modest daytime heating under variable cloud cover, with light southeasterly flow limiting strong warm advection while overnight radiational cooling keeps mornings near 17–19 °C. Model consensus shows only minor differences in afternoon insolation and boundary-layer mixing that can shift the peak by 1 °C, explaining why 24 °C and 27 °C retain meaningful but secondary shares. Historical August climatology centers on 24–25 °C highs, so current guidance reflects slightly above-average conditions without major synoptic drivers. Updated short-range runs and observational adjustments before local noon on the 15th remain the key near-term catalysts for any further probability shifts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Aug 13, 2026, 8:55 PM ET
交易量
$5,562結束日期
2026-08-15市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 8:55 PM ETThis market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from regional models and INMET guidance point to a maximum near 25–26 °C in São Paulo on August 15, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those values. Southern Hemisphere winter conditions feature modest daytime heating under variable cloud cover, with light southeasterly flow limiting strong warm advection while overnight radiational cooling keeps mornings near 17–19 °C. Model consensus shows only minor differences in afternoon insolation and boundary-layer mixing that can shift the peak by 1 °C, explaining why 24 °C and 27 °C retain meaningful but secondary shares. Historical August climatology centers on 24–25 °C highs, so current guidance reflects slightly above-average conditions without major synoptic drivers. Updated short-range runs and observational adjustments before local noon on the 15th remain the key near-term catalysts for any further probability shifts.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$5,562結束日期
2026-08-15市場開放時間
Aug 13, 2026, 8:55 PM ETRecent forecasts from regional models and INMET guidance point to a maximum near 25–26 °C in São Paulo on August 15, supporting the tight clustering of market-implied probabilities around those values. Southern Hemisphere winter conditions feature modest daytime heating under variable cloud cover, with light southeasterly flow limiting strong warm advection while overnight radiational cooling keeps mornings near 17–19 °C. Model consensus shows only minor differences in afternoon insolation and boundary-layer mixing that can shift the peak by 1 °C, explaining why 24 °C and 27 °C retain meaningful but secondary shares. Historical August climatology centers on 24–25 °C highs, so current guidance reflects slightly above-average conditions without major synoptic drivers. Updated short-range runs and observational adjustments before local noon on the 15th remain the key near-term catalysts for any further probability shifts.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions