Ensemble forecasts from major global models show a consensus for peak temperatures in Guangzhou around 35–36 °C on August 16, driven by typical mid-August subtropical conditions with high humidity, limited cloud cover, and weak steering flow that favors daytime heating. Historical climatology places average daily maxima near 33–34 °C, but recent model runs highlight modest warming from a building ridge and minimal tropical cyclone influence, elevating the probability of 36 °C as the mode. Traders weigh this against uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and any last-minute frontal passages that could suppress highs by 1–2 °C, keeping adjacent outcomes competitive. Updated high-resolution guidance and official China Meteorological Administration briefings expected within 48 hours will further refine the distribution ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月16日廣州最高溫度?
36°C 42%
35°C 22%
37°C 16%
34°C 12%
29°C或以下
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
2%
33°C
4%
34°C
12%
35°C
22%
36°C
42%
37°C
16%
38°C
5%
39°C或更高
1%
36°C 42%
35°C 22%
37°C 16%
34°C 12%
29°C或以下
<1%
30°C
<1%
31°C
1%
32°C
2%
33°C
4%
34°C
12%
35°C
22%
36°C
42%
37°C
16%
38°C
5%
39°C或更高
1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Aug 14, 2026, 12:58 AM ET
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Guangzhou Baiyun International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/guangzhou/ZGGG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ensemble forecasts from major global models show a consensus for peak temperatures in Guangzhou around 35–36 °C on August 16, driven by typical mid-August subtropical conditions with high humidity, limited cloud cover, and weak steering flow that favors daytime heating. Historical climatology places average daily maxima near 33–34 °C, but recent model runs highlight modest warming from a building ridge and minimal tropical cyclone influence, elevating the probability of 36 °C as the mode. Traders weigh this against uncertainty in boundary-layer moisture and any last-minute frontal passages that could suppress highs by 1–2 °C, keeping adjacent outcomes competitive. Updated high-resolution guidance and official China Meteorological Administration briefings expected within 48 hours will further refine the distribution ahead of market resolution.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於


警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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