Forecast models from agencies including AEMET and international ensembles indicate a strong high-pressure ridge over the Iberian Peninsula will drive Madrid’s peak temperature on August 14 into the upper 30s Celsius, with ensemble means centered near 38–39 °C. Recent runs show limited spread, with most guidance converging on 38–40 °C under clear skies and light southerly flow that favors daytime heating without significant cloud cover or precipitation. Spain’s broader 2026 summer pattern of above-normal temperatures and recurrent warm-air intrusions from North Africa supports these elevated values relative to the long-term August mean of roughly 32–33 °C. The market’s heavy weighting toward 39 °C and 38 °C therefore reflects the current consensus trajectory, while smaller probabilities assigned to 40 °C or 41 °C capture residual uncertainty in the final 48-hour model updates and any localized urban heat-island effects.