Current forecasts from regional meteorological models indicate a likely daily maximum near 27°C for São Paulo on August 1, supporting the market's leading 51% implied probability for that outcome. August climatology in the subtropical city typically features highs around 23–25°C, with cooler nights, but an emerging El Niño pattern and milder-than-normal winter conditions are favoring warmer air advection and reduced cloud cover. These factors elevate chances for readings at or above the 26–28°C range while keeping extremes below 30°C unlikely given seasonal baselines and urban measurement protocols. Updated model runs and official INMET guidance over the next hours will refine resolution thresholds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月1日聖保羅的最高溫度?
27°C 51%
28°C 26%
26°C 18%
25°C 4%
$15,879 交易量
$15,879 交易量
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
4%
26°C
18%
27°C
51%
28°C
26%
29°C
4%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
27°C 51%
28°C 26%
26°C 18%
25°C 4%
$15,879 交易量
$15,879 交易量
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
<1%
24°C
<1%
25°C
4%
26°C
18%
27°C
51%
28°C
26%
29°C
4%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間: Jul 30, 2026, 9:02 PM ET
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Sao Paulo-Guarulhos International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/br/guarulhos/SBGR.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Current forecasts from regional meteorological models indicate a likely daily maximum near 27°C for São Paulo on August 1, supporting the market's leading 51% implied probability for that outcome. August climatology in the subtropical city typically features highs around 23–25°C, with cooler nights, but an emerging El Niño pattern and milder-than-normal winter conditions are favoring warmer air advection and reduced cloud cover. These factors elevate chances for readings at or above the 26–28°C range while keeping extremes below 30°C unlikely given seasonal baselines and urban measurement protocols. Updated model runs and official INMET guidance over the next hours will refine resolution thresholds.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議,也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於


警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
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