Latest Météo-France and European model runs indicate a peak temperature near 28°C in central Paris on August 1, aligning with the market’s dominant 63.5% implied probability for that exact outcome and the 25.5% odds on 29°C. Persistent high pressure and light southerly flow have maintained above-average warmth following the June heatwave, while limited cloud cover and dry conditions support modest daytime heating without significant convective cooling. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around 27–29°C, with only low-probability scenarios for 30°C or higher tied to minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing. Traders are monitoring the final 12–18 hours of observational data and any last-minute adjustments to the maximum-temperature verification window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於8月1日巴黎最高溫度？
8月1日巴黎最高溫度？
28°C 64%
29°C 26%
27°C 8%
30°C 3%
最新
$29,267 交易量
最新
$29,267 交易量
2026-08-01
25°C or below
<1%
26°C
2%
27°C
8%
28°C
64%
29°C
26%
30°C
3%
31°C
<1%
32°C
<1%
33°C
<1%
34°C
<1%
35°C or higher
<1%
28°C 64%
29°C 26%
27°C 8%
30°C 3%
最新
$29,267 交易量
最新
$29,267 交易量
2026-08-01
25°C or below
$1,513 交易量
<1%
26°C
$2,892 交易量
2%
27°C
$4,547 交易量
8%
28°C
$6,682 交易量
64%
29°C
$5,993 交易量
26%
30°C
$2,525 交易量
3%
31°C
$2,658 交易量
<1%
32°C
$559 交易量
<1%
33°C
$956 交易量
<1%
34°C
$521 交易量
<1%
35°C or higher
$421 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest Météo-France and European model runs indicate a peak temperature near 28°C in central Paris on August 1, aligning with the market’s dominant 63.5% implied probability for that exact outcome and the 25.5% odds on 29°C. Persistent high pressure and light southerly flow have maintained above-average warmth following the June heatwave, while limited cloud cover and dry conditions support modest daytime heating without significant convective cooling. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around 27–29°C, with only low-probability scenarios for 30°C or higher tied to minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing. Traders are monitoring the final 12–18 hours of observational data and any last-minute adjustments to the maximum-temperature verification window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
市場開放時間： Jul 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
交易量
$29,267結束日期
2026-08-01市場開放時間
Jul 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ETThis market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest Météo-France and European model runs indicate a peak temperature near 28°C in central Paris on August 1, aligning with the market’s dominant 63.5% implied probability for that exact outcome and the 25.5% odds on 29°C. Persistent high pressure and light southerly flow have maintained above-average warmth following the June heatwave, while limited cloud cover and dry conditions support modest daytime heating without significant convective cooling. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around 27–29°C, with only low-probability scenarios for 30°C or higher tied to minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing. Traders are monitoring the final 12–18 hours of observational data and any last-minute adjustments to the maximum-temperature verification window.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 1 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
交易量
$29,267結束日期
2026-08-01市場開放時間
Jul 30, 2026, 12:02 AM ETLatest Météo-France and European model runs indicate a peak temperature near 28°C in central Paris on August 1, aligning with the market’s dominant 63.5% implied probability for that exact outcome and the 25.5% odds on 29°C. Persistent high pressure and light southerly flow have maintained above-average warmth following the June heatwave, while limited cloud cover and dry conditions support modest daytime heating without significant convective cooling. Ensemble guidance shows tight clustering around 27–29°C, with only low-probability scenarios for 30°C or higher tied to minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing. Traders are monitoring the final 12–18 hours of observational data and any last-minute adjustments to the maximum-temperature verification window.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions