California's 4th congressional district features a top-two primary system that produced an all-Democratic general election matchup after June 2026 results showed incumbent Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones advancing ahead of Republican candidates. The district carries a safe Democratic partisan lean, consistent with Thompson's prior reelection margins exceeding 60 percent. With both nominees from the same party, the Democratic outcome in November 2026 reflects structural certainty rather than polling dynamics. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for Democrats incorporates this primary filter and historical voting patterns in the district. Remote scenarios that could alter the result include candidate disqualification, withdrawal due to unforeseen circumstances, or successful legal challenges to ballot placement before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於$13,671 交易量
$13,671 交易量
2026-11-02
Democratic Party
96%
Republican Party
3%
$13,671 交易量
$13,671 交易量
2026-11-02
Democratic Party
$5,915 交易量
96%
Republican Party
$7,756 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 4th congressional district features a top-two primary system that produced an all-Democratic general election matchup after June 2026 results showed incumbent Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones advancing ahead of Republican candidates. The district carries a safe Democratic partisan lean, consistent with Thompson's prior reelection margins exceeding 60 percent. With both nominees from the same party, the Democratic outcome in November 2026 reflects structural certainty rather than polling dynamics. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for Democrats incorporates this primary filter and historical voting patterns in the district. Remote scenarios that could alter the result include candidate disqualification, withdrawal due to unforeseen circumstances, or successful legal challenges to ballot placement before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
市場開放時間： Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ET
交易量
$13,671結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).California's 4th congressional district features a top-two primary system that produced an all-Democratic general election matchup after June 2026 results showed incumbent Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones advancing ahead of Republican candidates. The district carries a safe Democratic partisan lean, consistent with Thompson's prior reelection margins exceeding 60 percent. With both nominees from the same party, the Democratic outcome in November 2026 reflects structural certainty rather than polling dynamics. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for Democrats incorporates this primary filter and historical voting patterns in the district. Remote scenarios that could alter the result include candidate disqualification, withdrawal due to unforeseen circumstances, or successful legal challenges to ballot placement before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-04 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
交易量
$13,671結束日期
2026-11-03市場開放時間
Jan 27, 2026, 11:54 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...California's 4th congressional district features a top-two primary system that produced an all-Democratic general election matchup after June 2026 results showed incumbent Mike Thompson and challenger Eric Jones advancing ahead of Republican candidates. The district carries a safe Democratic partisan lean, consistent with Thompson's prior reelection margins exceeding 60 percent. With both nominees from the same party, the Democratic outcome in November 2026 reflects structural certainty rather than polling dynamics. Trader consensus at 95.5 percent for Democrats incorporates this primary filter and historical voting patterns in the district. Remote scenarios that could alter the result include candidate disqualification, withdrawal due to unforeseen circumstances, or successful legal challenges to ballot placement before Election Day.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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