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政治·眾議院

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

icon for CA-14 Special Election Winner?
政治·眾議院

CA-14 Special Election Winner?

Aisha Wahab 90%

Melissa Hernandez 9.4%

Wendy Huang <1%

Carin Elam <1%

Polymarket

$68,055 交易量

Aisha Wahab 90%

Melissa Hernandez 9.4%

Wendy Huang <1%

Carin Elam <1%

Polymarket

$68,055 交易量

Aisha Wahab

$36,067 交易量

90%

Melissa Hernandez

$14,308 交易量

9%

Wendy Huang

$1,336 交易量

<1%

Carin Elam

$4,951 交易量

<1%

Matt Ortega

$4,031 交易量

<1%

Rakhi Israni Singh

$3,225 交易量

<1%

Victor Aguilar Jr.

$4,138 交易量

<1%

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.Aisha Wahab holds an 89% implied probability in the CA-14 special election market, reflecting her consistent primary leads and current unofficial runoff edge of 51% to 49% over Melissa Hernandez after the August 18 vote. Wahab advanced from both the June special primary (43%-17%) and the June regular primary (38% to Hernandez's lower share) in this solidly Democratic Bay Area district, previously held by Eric Swalwell. The narrow final margin and ongoing ballot processing introduce limited uncertainty, while Hernandez's stronger fundraising has not overcome Wahab's broader support across the electorate. The remaining low-probability candidates did not reach the runoff and hold negligible trader consensus.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
交易量
$68,055
結束日期
2026-08-18
市場開放時間
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.Aisha Wahab holds an 89% implied probability in the CA-14 special election market, reflecting her consistent primary leads and current unofficial runoff edge of 51% to 49% over Melissa Hernandez after the August 18 vote. Wahab advanced from both the June special primary (43%-17%) and the June regular primary (38% to Hernandez's lower share) in this solidly Democratic Bay Area district, previously held by Eric Swalwell. The narrow final margin and ongoing ballot processing introduce limited uncertainty, while Hernandez's stronger fundraising has not overcome Wahab's broader support across the electorate. The remaining low-probability candidates did not reach the runoff and hold negligible trader consensus.

A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives.

This market will resolve according to the winner of this election.

This market includes any potential runoff election or second round.

If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.
交易量
$68,055
結束日期
2026-08-18
市場開放時間
Apr 16, 2026, 1:41 PM ET

Resolver

0x69c47De9D...
A special election is scheduled for August 18, 2026 to fill the seat of California’s 14th Congressional district in the U.S. House of Representatives. This market will resolve according to the winner of this election. This market includes any potential runoff election or second round. If the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official sources, including: https://www.sos.ca.gov/.

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Frequently Asked Questions

"CA-14 Special Election Winner?" is a prediction market on Polymarket with 7 possible outcomes where traders buy and sell shares based on what they believe will happen. The current leading outcome is "Aisha Wahab" at 90%, followed by "Melissa Hernandez" at 9%. Prices reflect real-time crowd-sourced probabilities. For example, a share priced at 90¢ implies that the market collectively assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. These odds shift continuously as traders react to new developments and information. Shares in the correct outcome are redeemable for $1 each upon market resolution.

As of today, "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" has generated $68.1K in total trading volume since the market launched on Apr 16, 2026. This level of trading activity reflects strong engagement from the Polymarket community and helps ensure that the current odds are informed by a deep pool of market participants. You can track live price movements and trade on any outcome directly on this page.

To trade on "CA-14 Special Election Winner?," browse the 7 available outcomes listed on this page. Each outcome displays a current price representing the market's implied probability. To take a position, select the outcome you believe is most likely, choose "Yes" to trade in favor of it or "No" to trade against it, enter your amount, and click "Trade." If your chosen outcome is correct when the market resolves, your "Yes" shares pay out $1 each. If it's incorrect, they pay out $0. You can also sell your shares at any time before resolution if you want to lock in a profit or cut a loss.

The current frontrunner for "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" is "Aisha Wahab" at 90%, meaning the market assigns a 90% chance to that outcome. The next closest outcome is "Melissa Hernandez" at 9%. These odds update in real-time as traders buy and sell shares, so they reflect the latest collective view of what's most likely to happen. Check back frequently or bookmark this page to follow how the odds shift as new information emerges.

The resolution rules for "CA-14 Special Election Winner?" define exactly what needs to happen for each outcome to be declared a winner — including the official data sources used to determine the result. You can review the complete resolution criteria in the "Rules" section on this page above the comments. We recommend reading the rules carefully before trading, as they specify the precise conditions, edge cases, and sources that govern how this market is settled.