Recent polling from Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel shows President Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly five points in first-round simulations, with Lula at 37-38% and Flávio at 30-33%, while outsider Augusto Cury has surged to 8-10%. High rejection ratings for both frontrunners, combined with weak second-quarter GDP growth and persistent high interest rates, have kept the race competitive and limited Lula's margin. Fragmentation among other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos further compresses the gap, as does the start of free electoral broadcasts and recent debates. Traders' heavy weighting toward a sub-10% Lula margin reflects this ongoing tightness ahead of the October 4 vote, with any further consolidation or economic shifts likely to influence final separation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5% 44%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10% 38%
弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 <5% 5.8%
盧拉·達席爾瓦10-15% 5.3%
$387,252 交易量
$387,252 交易量
2026-10-03
魯拉·達席爾瓦15%+
4%
盧拉·達席爾瓦10-15%
5%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10%
38%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5%
44%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅領先10%+
3%
弗拉維奧·波索納羅 5-10%
2%
弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 <5%
6%
雷南·桑托斯勝利
<1%
塔西西歐·德·弗雷塔斯勝利
<1%
拉蒂尼奧·儒尼奧爾勝選
<1%
其他
<1%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5% 44%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10% 38%
弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 <5% 5.8%
盧拉·達席爾瓦10-15% 5.3%
$387,252 交易量
$387,252 交易量
2026-10-03
魯拉·達席爾瓦15%+
$16,870 交易量
4%
盧拉·達席爾瓦10-15%
$34,880 交易量
5%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 5–10%
$27,668 交易量
38%
盧拉·達席爾瓦 <5%
$34,352 交易量
44%
弗拉維奧·博索納羅領先10%+
$12,161 交易量
3%
弗拉維奧·波索納羅 5-10%
$10,242 交易量
2%
弗拉維奧·博爾索納羅 <5%
$17,207 交易量
6%
雷南·桑托斯勝利
$212,451 交易量
<1%
塔西西歐·德·弗雷塔斯勝利
$7,371 交易量
<1%
拉蒂尼奧·儒尼奧爾勝選
$6,710 交易量
<1%
其他
$7,340 交易量
<1%
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel shows President Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly five points in first-round simulations, with Lula at 37-38% and Flávio at 30-33%, while outsider Augusto Cury has surged to 8-10%. High rejection ratings for both frontrunners, combined with weak second-quarter GDP growth and persistent high interest rates, have kept the race competitive and limited Lula's margin. Fragmentation among other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos further compresses the gap, as does the start of free electoral broadcasts and recent debates. Traders' heavy weighting toward a sub-10% Lula margin reflects this ongoing tightness ahead of the October 4 vote, with any further consolidation or economic shifts likely to influence final separation.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
市場開放時間： Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ET
交易量
$387,252結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETA presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).Recent polling from Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel shows President Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly five points in first-round simulations, with Lula at 37-38% and Flávio at 30-33%, while outsider Augusto Cury has surged to 8-10%. High rejection ratings for both frontrunners, combined with weak second-quarter GDP growth and persistent high interest rates, have kept the race competitive and limited Lula's margin. Fragmentation among other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos further compresses the gap, as does the start of free electoral broadcasts and recent debates. Traders' heavy weighting toward a sub-10% Lula margin reflects this ongoing tightness ahead of the October 4 vote, with any further consolidation or economic shifts likely to influence final separation.
A presidential election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026.
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two candidates in the first round of the next Brazil Presidential Election.
For the purpose of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid votes received by the first- and second-place candidates. Percentages of the valid votes received by each candidate will be determined by dividing the total number of valid votes each of the top two candidates receives by the sum of all valid votes cast in the election.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
This market will resolve based on the official vote count once the vote count has been made official.
If a recount is initiated before the vote total has been made official, the market will remain open until the recount is completed and the vote is made official.
If the result of this election isn't known definitively by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., https://dadosabertos.tse.jus.br/).
交易量
$387,252結束日期
2026-10-04市場開放時間
Feb 11, 2026, 5:44 PM ETRecent polling from Datafolha, Quaest, and AtlasIntel shows President Lula da Silva leading Senator Flávio Bolsonaro by roughly five points in first-round simulations, with Lula at 37-38% and Flávio at 30-33%, while outsider Augusto Cury has surged to 8-10%. High rejection ratings for both frontrunners, combined with weak second-quarter GDP growth and persistent high interest rates, have kept the race competitive and limited Lula's margin. Fragmentation among other candidates such as Ronaldo Caiado and Renan Santos further compresses the gap, as does the start of free electoral broadcasts and recent debates. Traders' heavy weighting toward a sub-10% Lula margin reflects this ongoing tightness ahead of the October 4 vote, with any further consolidation or economic shifts likely to influence final separation.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions