Ongoing Houthi attacks and a declared blockade on Saudi-linked shipping have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits well below historical baselines of 60–80 vessels daily, with recent data showing averages near 35–60 amid selective targeting and elevated war-risk premiums. Fresh escalation in Yemen fighting near Mocha Port as of early September 2026 has reinforced carrier caution, limiting any sustained recovery despite tentative Suez reroutings by major lines. Trader consensus reflected in the 83% combined market-implied odds for outcomes below 30 aligns with these persistent chokepoint risks and fragile sentiment, while upcoming data releases on weekly crossings could test whether volumes stabilize or decline further into month-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於少於25 46.7%
25-29 37%
30-34 9.6%
35-39 6%
$14,530 交易量
$14,530 交易量
2026-09-30
少於25
47%
25-29
37%
30-34
10%
35-39
6%
40+
3%
少於25 46.7%
25-29 37%
30-34 9.6%
35-39 6%
$14,530 交易量
$14,530 交易量
2026-09-30
少於25
$2,577 交易量
47%
25-29
$5,403 交易量
37%
30-34
$3,126 交易量
10%
35-39
$1,621 交易量
6%
40+
$1,804 交易量
3%
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Houthi attacks and a declared blockade on Saudi-linked shipping have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits well below historical baselines of 60–80 vessels daily, with recent data showing averages near 35–60 amid selective targeting and elevated war-risk premiums. Fresh escalation in Yemen fighting near Mocha Port as of early September 2026 has reinforced carrier caution, limiting any sustained recovery despite tentative Suez reroutings by major lines. Trader consensus reflected in the 83% combined market-implied odds for outcomes below 30 aligns with these persistent chokepoint risks and fragile sentiment, while upcoming data releases on weekly crossings could test whether volumes stabilize or decline further into month-end.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
市場開放時間： Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ET
交易量
$14,530結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ET結算來源
IMF PortWatchThis market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.Ongoing Houthi attacks and a declared blockade on Saudi-linked shipping have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits well below historical baselines of 60–80 vessels daily, with recent data showing averages near 35–60 amid selective targeting and elevated war-risk premiums. Fresh escalation in Yemen fighting near Mocha Port as of early September 2026 has reinforced carrier caution, limiting any sustained recovery despite tentative Suez reroutings by major lines. Trader consensus reflected in the 83% combined market-implied odds for outcomes below 30 aligns with these persistent chokepoint risks and fragile sentiment, while upcoming data releases on weekly crossings could test whether volumes stabilize or decline further into month-end.
This market will resolve according to the 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait that IMF Portwatch reports for September 30, 2026.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
Transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered.
This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data has been published. If the relevant data is not published within 14 calendar days of the specified date, this market will resolve based on the most recent data published up to that point.
In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources.
The resolution source for this market will be IMF PortWatch, specifically the “Arrivals of Ships” data published for the Bab el-Mandeb Strait at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/6b1814d64903461b98144a6cc25eb79c.
交易量
$14,530結束日期
2026-09-30市場開放時間
Aug 26, 2026, 6:14 PM ET結算來源
IMF PortWatchOngoing Houthi attacks and a declared blockade on Saudi-linked shipping have kept Bab el-Mandeb transits well below historical baselines of 60–80 vessels daily, with recent data showing averages near 35–60 amid selective targeting and elevated war-risk premiums. Fresh escalation in Yemen fighting near Mocha Port as of early September 2026 has reinforced carrier caution, limiting any sustained recovery despite tentative Suez reroutings by major lines. Trader consensus reflected in the 83% combined market-implied odds for outcomes below 30 aligns with these persistent chokepoint risks and fragile sentiment, while upcoming data releases on weekly crossings could test whether volumes stabilize or decline further into month-end.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
警惕外部連結哦。
警惕外部連結哦。
Frequently Asked Questions