The Federal Reserve’s unanimous 25-basis-point hike on September 16, 2026, to a 3.75–4.00% target range, combined with hawkish Summary of Economic Projections, forms the core driver behind the 81% implied probability of at least one additional increase before year-end. Officials revised the median year-end funds rate to 4.1% and marked up 2026 PCE inflation to 3.7%, with core at 3.4%, while projecting solid 2.3% GDP growth and a 4.1% unemployment rate. Sixteen of 18 participants now anticipate further tightening this year, reflecting persistent price pressures and a resilient labor market that have shifted the policy stance higher for longer. Market pricing embeds this updated path versus prior June projections, with the next FOMC meeting in late October as the immediate catalyst.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於是
81% 機率
最新
$18,484 交易量
最新
$18,484 交易量
2026-12-08
是
81% 機率
最新
$18,484 交易量
最新
$18,484 交易量
2026-12-08
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve’s unanimous 25-basis-point hike on September 16, 2026, to a 3.75–4.00% target range, combined with hawkish Summary of Economic Projections, forms the core driver behind the 81% implied probability of at least one additional increase before year-end. Officials revised the median year-end funds rate to 4.1% and marked up 2026 PCE inflation to 3.7%, with core at 3.4%, while projecting solid 2.3% GDP growth and a 4.1% unemployment rate. Sixteen of 18 participants now anticipate further tightening this year, reflecting persistent price pressures and a resilient labor market that have shifted the policy stance higher for longer. Market pricing embeds this updated path versus prior June projections, with the next FOMC meeting in late October as the immediate catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市場開放時間： Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ET
交易量
$18,484結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETThis market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.The Federal Reserve’s unanimous 25-basis-point hike on September 16, 2026, to a 3.75–4.00% target range, combined with hawkish Summary of Economic Projections, forms the core driver behind the 81% implied probability of at least one additional increase before year-end. Officials revised the median year-end funds rate to 4.1% and marked up 2026 PCE inflation to 3.7%, with core at 3.4%, while projecting solid 2.3% GDP growth and a 4.1% unemployment rate. Sixteen of 18 participants now anticipate further tightening this year, reflecting persistent price pressures and a resilient labor market that have shifted the policy stance higher for longer. Market pricing embeds this updated path versus prior June projections, with the next FOMC meeting in late October as the immediate catalyst.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify.
This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting.
The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$18,484結束日期
2026-12-09市場開放時間
Sep 16, 2026, 2:24 PM ETThe Federal Reserve’s unanimous 25-basis-point hike on September 16, 2026, to a 3.75–4.00% target range, combined with hawkish Summary of Economic Projections, forms the core driver behind the 81% implied probability of at least one additional increase before year-end. Officials revised the median year-end funds rate to 4.1% and marked up 2026 PCE inflation to 3.7%, with core at 3.4%, while projecting solid 2.3% GDP growth and a 4.1% unemployment rate. Sixteen of 18 participants now anticipate further tightening this year, reflecting persistent price pressures and a resilient labor market that have shifted the policy stance higher for longer. Market pricing embeds this updated path versus prior June projections, with the next FOMC meeting in late October as the immediate catalyst.
基於Polymarket數據的AI實驗性摘要。這不是交易建議，也不影響該市場的結算方式。 · 更新於
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