In August 2026, closely matched market-implied odds around 50% for "Other" and numerous listed entrants reflect the fragmented state of text-to-video leadership, with no single large language model or video generator establishing clear dominance. Google Veo 3.1 stands out for synchronized dialogue and prompt adherence, while OpenAI's Sora 2, Kling 3.0 from Kuaishou, Runway Gen-4.5, and Luma Ray 3 compete on motion control, cinematic quality, native audio, and photorealism. Recent releases and iterative updates through mid-2026 have highlighted differing strengths—such as Runway's creative tools versus Kling's cost-efficient iteration—keeping trader sentiment balanced ahead of October resolution. Key upcoming catalysts include further capability benchmarks and commercial availability that could shift the competitive landscape before the deadline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtKandinsky 27%
Tencent 27%
Lightricks 27%
Pika 26%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 31, 2026
Kandinsky
27%
Tencent
27%
Lightricks
27%
Pika
26%
Genmo AI
26%
26%
MiniMax
25%
Pruna
25%
Luma AI
25%
ByteDance
24%
Meta
24%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
24%
OpenAI
24%
SpaceXAI
24%
Pixverse
24%
Runway
24%
KlingAI
24%
Kandinsky 27%
Tencent 27%
Lightricks 27%
Pika 26%
MỚI
MỚI
Oct 31, 2026
Kandinsky
$0 KL.
27%
Tencent
$0 KL.
27%
Lightricks
$0 KL.
27%
Pika
$0 KL.
26%
Genmo AI
$0 KL.
26%
$0 KL.
26%
MiniMax
$0 KL.
25%
Pruna
$0 KL.
25%
Luma AI
$0 KL.
25%
ByteDance
$0 KL.
24%
Meta
$0 KL.
24%
Alibaba/Alibaba-ATH
$0 KL.
24%
OpenAI
$0 KL.
24%
SpaceXAI
$0 KL.
24%
Pixverse
$0 KL.
24%
Runway
$0 KL.
24%
KlingAI
$0 KL.
24%
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".In August 2026, closely matched market-implied odds around 50% for "Other" and numerous listed entrants reflect the fragmented state of text-to-video leadership, with no single large language model or video generator establishing clear dominance. Google Veo 3.1 stands out for synchronized dialogue and prompt adherence, while OpenAI's Sora 2, Kling 3.0 from Kuaishou, Runway Gen-4.5, and Luma Ray 3 compete on motion control, cinematic quality, native audio, and photorealism. Recent releases and iterative updates through mid-2026 have highlighted differing strengths—such as Runway's creative tools versus Kling's cost-efficient iteration—keeping trader sentiment balanced ahead of October resolution. Key upcoming catalysts include further capability benchmarks and commercial availability that could shift the competitive landscape before the deadline.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Thị trường mở: Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ET
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Oct 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".In August 2026, closely matched market-implied odds around 50% for "Other" and numerous listed entrants reflect the fragmented state of text-to-video leadership, with no single large language model or video generator establishing clear dominance. Google Veo 3.1 stands out for synchronized dialogue and prompt adherence, while OpenAI's Sora 2, Kling 3.0 from Kuaishou, Runway Gen-4.5, and Luma Ray 3 compete on motion control, cinematic quality, native audio, and photorealism. Recent releases and iterative updates through mid-2026 have highlighted differing strengths—such as Runway's creative tools versus Kling's cost-efficient iteration—keeping trader sentiment balanced ahead of October resolution. Key upcoming catalysts include further capability benchmarks and commercial availability that could shift the competitive landscape before the deadline.
This market will resolve according to the company that owns the model that has the highest rank based on the arena.ai Text-to-Video Leaderboard when the table under "Text-to-Video Arena" filtered for "Models" is checked on October 31, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text-to-Video Arena" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text-to-video filtered for "Models" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
Models will be ordered primarily by their leaderboard rank at the market’s check time. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies first place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text-to-Video Arena Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Khối lượng
$0Ngày kết thúc
Oct 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 13, 2026, 5:14 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...In August 2026, closely matched market-implied odds around 50% for "Other" and numerous listed entrants reflect the fragmented state of text-to-video leadership, with no single large language model or video generator establishing clear dominance. Google Veo 3.1 stands out for synchronized dialogue and prompt adherence, while OpenAI's Sora 2, Kling 3.0 from Kuaishou, Runway Gen-4.5, and Luma Ray 3 compete on motion control, cinematic quality, native audio, and photorealism. Recent releases and iterative updates through mid-2026 have highlighted differing strengths—such as Runway's creative tools versus Kling's cost-efficient iteration—keeping trader sentiment balanced ahead of October resolution. Key upcoming catalysts include further capability benchmarks and commercial availability that could shift the competitive landscape before the deadline.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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