El Niño conditions, already established and projected to intensify through fall, represent the dominant suppressing influence on 2026 Atlantic hurricane activity by elevating vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. This dynamic has kept early-season development minimal, with only two named storms—both remaining below hurricane intensity—through late July. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University anticipate 3-6 hurricanes for the full season, below the 1991-2020 average of seven, though warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures introduce counterbalancing potential for organization during the August-October peak. The closely matched market probabilities across 1-3, 4-6, and 7+ outcomes reflect trader assessment of El Niño strength variability and model uncertainty in how these competing factors will resolve before November 30.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHow many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
How many hurricanes will form during the Atlantic Hurricane Season in 2026?
1-3 45%
4-6 39%
7+ 35%
0 7%
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
0
7%
1-3
45%
4-6
39%
7+
35%
1-3 45%
4-6 39%
7+ 35%
0 7%
MỚI
MỚI
Dec 31, 2026
0
$58 KL.
7%
1-3
$0 KL.
45%
4-6
$0 KL.
39%
7+
$0 KL.
35%
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.El Niño conditions, already established and projected to intensify through fall, represent the dominant suppressing influence on 2026 Atlantic hurricane activity by elevating vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. This dynamic has kept early-season development minimal, with only two named storms—both remaining below hurricane intensity—through late July. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University anticipate 3-6 hurricanes for the full season, below the 1991-2020 average of seven, though warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures introduce counterbalancing potential for organization during the August-October peak. The closely matched market probabilities across 1-3, 4-6, and 7+ outcomes reflect trader assessment of El Niño strength variability and model uncertainty in how these competing factors will resolve before November 30.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Thị trường mở: Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ET
Khối lượng
$58Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.El Niño conditions, already established and projected to intensify through fall, represent the dominant suppressing influence on 2026 Atlantic hurricane activity by elevating vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. This dynamic has kept early-season development minimal, with only two named storms—both remaining below hurricane intensity—through late July. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University anticipate 3-6 hurricanes for the full season, below the 1991-2020 average of seven, though warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures introduce counterbalancing potential for organization during the August-October peak. The closely matched market probabilities across 1-3, 4-6, and 7+ outcomes reflect trader assessment of El Niño strength variability and model uncertainty in how these competing factors will resolve before November 30.
This market will resolve according to the number of storms categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic between market creation and November 30, 2026 11:59 PM ET.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
If there is no storm categorized as a hurricane in the Atlantic during the specified timeframe this market will resolve to "0".
A hurricane is a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of 74 mph or greater (Category 1 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale), as described at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutsshws.php.
This market may resolve based on the initial NHC advisory reporting a qualifying hurricane regardless of any later advisory, retraction, best-track revision, or reanalysis that revises that storm's intensity downward. The official count will be determined by the NHC (nhc.noaa.gov) advisories.
Khối lượng
$58Ngày kết thúc
Dec 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Jul 28, 2026, 4:49 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...El Niño conditions, already established and projected to intensify through fall, represent the dominant suppressing influence on 2026 Atlantic hurricane activity by elevating vertical wind shear across the tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. This dynamic has kept early-season development minimal, with only two named storms—both remaining below hurricane intensity—through late July. Official outlooks from NOAA and Colorado State University anticipate 3-6 hurricanes for the full season, below the 1991-2020 average of seven, though warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures introduce counterbalancing potential for organization during the August-October peak. The closely matched market probabilities across 1-3, 4-6, and 7+ outcomes reflect trader assessment of El Niño strength variability and model uncertainty in how these competing factors will resolve before November 30.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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