Recent forecast guidance from models including GFS points to a daytime high near 26–27 °C in Warsaw on 31 August, driven by southerly advection of warmer air masses ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Partly cloudy skies will allow sufficient solar insolation for afternoon heating, while scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day introduce uncertainty in peak readings. Historical late-August baselines for the region average 22–24 °C, so the current pattern represents a modest positive anomaly. Market pricing, with 27 °C or higher at 59 % and 26 °C at 29 %, reflects this consensus tempered by the risk that earlier or heavier convection could limit the maximum. Updated model runs and official Polish meteorological service guidance ahead of the 31st will be the key near-term catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhậtHighest temperature in Warsaw on August 31?
Highest temperature in Warsaw on August 31?
27°C or higher 60%
26°C 28%
25°C 7%
24°C 4%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 31, 2026
17°C or below
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C
1%
24°C
4%
25°C
7%
26°C
28%
27°C or higher
60%
27°C or higher 60%
26°C 28%
25°C 7%
24°C 4%
MỚI
MỚI
Aug 31, 2026
17°C or below
$251 KL.
<1%
18°C
$254 KL.
<1%
19°C
$351 KL.
<1%
20°C
$351 KL.
<1%
21°C
$215 KL.
<1%
22°C
$497 KL.
<1%
23°C
$342 KL.
1%
24°C
$315 KL.
4%
25°C
$1,460 KL.
7%
26°C
$852 KL.
28%
27°C or higher
$3,129 KL.
60%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from models including GFS points to a daytime high near 26–27 °C in Warsaw on 31 August, driven by southerly advection of warmer air masses ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Partly cloudy skies will allow sufficient solar insolation for afternoon heating, while scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day introduce uncertainty in peak readings. Historical late-August baselines for the region average 22–24 °C, so the current pattern represents a modest positive anomaly. Market pricing, with 27 °C or higher at 59 % and 26 °C at 29 %, reflects this consensus tempered by the risk that earlier or heavier convection could limit the maximum. Updated model runs and official Polish meteorological service guidance ahead of the 31st will be the key near-term catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Thị trường mở: Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Khối lượng
$8,017Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecast guidance from models including GFS points to a daytime high near 26–27 °C in Warsaw on 31 August, driven by southerly advection of warmer air masses ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Partly cloudy skies will allow sufficient solar insolation for afternoon heating, while scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day introduce uncertainty in peak readings. Historical late-August baselines for the region average 22–24 °C, so the current pattern represents a modest positive anomaly. Market pricing, with 27 °C or higher at 59 % and 26 °C at 29 %, reflects this consensus tempered by the risk that earlier or heavier convection could limit the maximum. Updated model runs and official Polish meteorological service guidance ahead of the 31st will be the key near-term catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Warsaw Chopin Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Khối lượng
$8,017Ngày kết thúc
Aug 31, 2026Thị trường mở
Aug 29, 2026, 12:57 AM ETNguồn giải quyết
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=epwaNgười giải quyết
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecast guidance from models including GFS points to a daytime high near 26–27 °C in Warsaw on 31 August, driven by southerly advection of warmer air masses ahead of an approaching frontal boundary. Partly cloudy skies will allow sufficient solar insolation for afternoon heating, while scattered thunderstorms developing later in the day introduce uncertainty in peak readings. Historical late-August baselines for the region average 22–24 °C, so the current pattern represents a modest positive anomaly. Market pricing, with 27 °C or higher at 59 % and 26 °C at 29 %, reflects this consensus tempered by the risk that earlier or heavier convection could limit the maximum. Updated model runs and official Polish meteorological service guidance ahead of the 31st will be the key near-term catalysts for any shift in implied probabilities.
Tóm tắt AI thử nghiệm tham chiếu dữ liệu Polymarket. Đây không phải tư vấn giao dịch và không ảnh hưởng đến cách thị trường này được giải quyết. · Cập nhật
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