**Recent forecasts position 29–31°C as the most probable range for Incheon’s daily maximum on August 26.** Late-summer cooling is underway after early-August extremes, with the Korea Meteorological Administration and international models showing a gradual decline in peak temperatures across the Seoul metropolitan area. Seasonal climatology supports this shift: Incheon’s average August high falls from ~29°C early in the month to ~27°C by month-end, driven by weakening solar insolation and changing monsoon patterns. Current medium-range guidance indicates overcast skies and light easterly flow on the 26th, limiting daytime heating while keeping humidity elevated. No strong high-pressure ridge or subtropical moisture surge is expected to push values above 32°C, and model consensus places the most likely outcome near 30°C—aligning with the market’s heaviest weighting at 30°C (39.5 %) followed by 29°C (25 %) and 31°C (21 %). Shorter-term uncertainty remains modest. Minor forecast adjustments from updated KMA runs or changes in cloud cover could still shift the exact high by 1–2°C, which explains the spread across the central bins and the low probability assigned to outliers above 32°C or below 28°C. Traders are effectively pricing the latest ensemble guidance rather than the earlier heatwave regime.