**Forecast consensus from multiple models places Munich’s high on August 24 around 23–24 °C**, aligning with the market’s leading outcomes (24 °C at 50 %, 23 °C at 25.5 %). Official guidance and ensemble runs show a stable easterly flow under moderate high pressure, producing mostly cloudy to partly cloudy skies with minimal daytime heating. Low-level moisture and light winds limit mixing, keeping the maximum near the long-term August average of 23.4 °C. Precipitation chances remain low (5–6 %), reducing evaporative cooling or thunderstorm-related temperature suppression. Recent model updates through August 23 confirm this pattern with little spread, as upstream ridging and lack of strong advection suppress both warmer and cooler extremes. Higher probabilities for 25 °C or above reflect residual uncertainty in afternoon clearing, while sub-22 °C outcomes are discounted by the absence of significant cold-air advection or persistent low cloud. Traders are weighting the narrow, well-resolved temperature distribution from GFS, ECMWF, and ICON guidance.