Tropical Storm Saudel, recently upgraded to typhoon strength in the western Pacific, has tracked northwest after passing north of Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands with sustained winds near 90-110 mph. Forecasters monitor its eyewall replacement cycle and shifting environmental conditions that could limit further intensification before any landfall. Model guidance shows increasing spread beyond three days, with some ensembles favoring a path toward southeastern China around five days out while others indicate possible interaction with Taiwan or indirect effects on northern Luzon through enhanced monsoon rainfall. Official updates from JTWC, JMA, and PAGASA, along with satellite trends and cross-track uncertainty, remain the primary drivers of trader positioning on resolution locations and timing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоWhere will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall?
Where will Tropical Storm Saudel make landfall?
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
China
88%
Japan
67%
South Korea
7%
$3,252 Обс.
China
$2,419 Обс.
88%
Japan
$505 Обс.
67%
South Korea
$328 Обс.
7%
Each market in this group asks whether Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) will make landfall in the country named in that market's title, on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The qualifying crossing must occur on or before that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. Each market resolves "No" if no qualifying crossing of its country's territory has occurred by the deadline.
A market resolves "Yes" if the center of Saudel's circulation physically crosses the coastline of that country, as plotted by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the center over that country's land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or as confirmed by credible international news reporting.
JMA is the primary resolution source: if a JMA advisory plots the center over a country's land, that market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms the center crossed the coastline between discrete advisory fixes, the market also resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source.
Territorial definitions:
"China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, and excluding Taiwan.
"Japan" refers to all territory under the administration of Japan, including the four main islands (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Shikoku), Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and all other Japanese islands.
"South Korea" refers to all territory under the administration of the Republic of Korea, including Jeju Island and all outlying islands.
The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Saudel as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher); a crossing while the system is extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed does not count. For every market, the classification and position determination in effect immediately prior to the qualifying crossing are fixed by that single JMA advisory and are not changed by any later real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis. Tropical Storm Saudel, recently upgraded to typhoon strength in the western Pacific, has tracked northwest after passing north of Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands with sustained winds near 90-110 mph. Forecasters monitor its eyewall replacement cycle and shifting environmental conditions that could limit further intensification before any landfall. Model guidance shows increasing spread beyond three days, with some ensembles favoring a path toward southeastern China around five days out while others indicate possible interaction with Taiwan or indirect effects on northern Luzon through enhanced monsoon rainfall. Official updates from JTWC, JMA, and PAGASA, along with satellite trends and cross-track uncertainty, remain the primary drivers of trader positioning on resolution locations and timing.
Each market in this group asks whether Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) will make landfall in the country named in that market's title, on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The qualifying crossing must occur on or before that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. Each market resolves "No" if no qualifying crossing of its country's territory has occurred by the deadline.
A market resolves "Yes" if the center of Saudel's circulation physically crosses the coastline of that country, as plotted by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the center over that country's land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or as confirmed by credible international news reporting.
JMA is the primary resolution source: if a JMA advisory plots the center over a country's land, that market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms the center crossed the coastline between discrete advisory fixes, the market also resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source.
Territorial definitions:
"China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, and excluding Taiwan.
"Japan" refers to all territory under the administration of Japan, including the four main islands (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Shikoku), Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and all other Japanese islands.
"South Korea" refers to all territory under the administration of the Republic of Korea, including Jeju Island and all outlying islands.
The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Saudel as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher); a crossing while the system is extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed does not count. For every market, the classification and position determination in effect immediately prior to the qualifying crossing are fixed by that single JMA advisory and are not changed by any later real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis.
A market resolves "Yes" if the center of Saudel's circulation physically crosses the coastline of that country, as plotted by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the center over that country's land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or as confirmed by credible international news reporting.
JMA is the primary resolution source: if a JMA advisory plots the center over a country's land, that market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms the center crossed the coastline between discrete advisory fixes, the market also resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source.
Territorial definitions:
"China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, and excluding Taiwan.
"Japan" refers to all territory under the administration of Japan, including the four main islands (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Shikoku), Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and all other Japanese islands.
"South Korea" refers to all territory under the administration of the Republic of Korea, including Jeju Island and all outlying islands.
The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Saudel as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher); a crossing while the system is extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed does not count. For every market, the classification and position determination in effect immediately prior to the qualifying crossing are fixed by that single JMA advisory and are not changed by any later real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 20, 2026, 11:14 AM ET
Обсяг
$3,252Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 11:14 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x65070BE91...Each market in this group asks whether Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) will make landfall in the country named in that market's title, on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The qualifying crossing must occur on or before that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. Each market resolves "No" if no qualifying crossing of its country's territory has occurred by the deadline.
A market resolves "Yes" if the center of Saudel's circulation physically crosses the coastline of that country, as plotted by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the center over that country's land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or as confirmed by credible international news reporting.
JMA is the primary resolution source: if a JMA advisory plots the center over a country's land, that market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms the center crossed the coastline between discrete advisory fixes, the market also resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source.
Territorial definitions:
"China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, and excluding Taiwan.
"Japan" refers to all territory under the administration of Japan, including the four main islands (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Shikoku), Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and all other Japanese islands.
"South Korea" refers to all territory under the administration of the Republic of Korea, including Jeju Island and all outlying islands.
The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Saudel as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher); a crossing while the system is extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed does not count. For every market, the classification and position determination in effect immediately prior to the qualifying crossing are fixed by that single JMA advisory and are not changed by any later real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis. Tropical Storm Saudel, recently upgraded to typhoon strength in the western Pacific, has tracked northwest after passing north of Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands with sustained winds near 90-110 mph. Forecasters monitor its eyewall replacement cycle and shifting environmental conditions that could limit further intensification before any landfall. Model guidance shows increasing spread beyond three days, with some ensembles favoring a path toward southeastern China around five days out while others indicate possible interaction with Taiwan or indirect effects on northern Luzon through enhanced monsoon rainfall. Official updates from JTWC, JMA, and PAGASA, along with satellite trends and cross-track uncertainty, remain the primary drivers of trader positioning on resolution locations and timing.
Each market in this group asks whether Tropical Storm Saudel (JMA designation T2618) will make landfall in the country named in that market's title, on or before 11:59 PM ET on August 31, 2026. The qualifying crossing must occur on or before that deadline; confirmation may arrive afterward. Each market resolves "No" if no qualifying crossing of its country's territory has occurred by the deadline.
A market resolves "Yes" if the center of Saudel's circulation physically crosses the coastline of that country, as plotted by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the center over that country's land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or as confirmed by credible international news reporting.
JMA is the primary resolution source: if a JMA advisory plots the center over a country's land, that market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms the center crossed the coastline between discrete advisory fixes, the market also resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source.
Territorial definitions:
"China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, and excluding Taiwan.
"Japan" refers to all territory under the administration of Japan, including the four main islands (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Shikoku), Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and all other Japanese islands.
"South Korea" refers to all territory under the administration of the Republic of Korea, including Jeju Island and all outlying islands.
The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Saudel as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher); a crossing while the system is extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed does not count. For every market, the classification and position determination in effect immediately prior to the qualifying crossing are fixed by that single JMA advisory and are not changed by any later real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis.
A market resolves "Yes" if the center of Saudel's circulation physically crosses the coastline of that country, as plotted by the Japan Meteorological Agency's (JMA) position advisories placing the center over that country's land (https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=en), or as confirmed by credible international news reporting.
JMA is the primary resolution source: if a JMA advisory plots the center over a country's land, that market resolves "Yes" regardless of what other sources say; if no JMA advisory plots the center on land but credible reporting confirms the center crossed the coastline between discrete advisory fixes, the market also resolves "Yes." A disagreement exists only when a JMA advisory and credible reporting make contradictory claims about the storm's position at the same point in time; in that case, JMA is the default resolution source.
Territorial definitions:
"China" refers to all territory under the administration of the People's Republic of China, including the Special Administrative Regions of Hong Kong and Macau, and excluding Taiwan.
"Japan" refers to all territory under the administration of Japan, including the four main islands (Honshu, Hokkaido, Kyushu, and Shikoku), Okinawa, the Ryukyu Islands, the Ogasawara Islands, and all other Japanese islands.
"South Korea" refers to all territory under the administration of the Republic of Korea, including Jeju Island and all outlying islands.
The most recently issued JMA advisory prior to the crossing must classify Saudel as a tropical cyclone (tropical depression or higher); a crossing while the system is extratropical, dissipated, or absorbed does not count. For every market, the classification and position determination in effect immediately prior to the qualifying crossing are fixed by that single JMA advisory and are not changed by any later real-time advisory, reclassification, or post-season best-track reanalysis.
Обсяг
$3,252Дата завершення
Sep 1, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 20, 2026, 11:14 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.jma.go.jp/bosai/map.html#contents=typhoon&lang=enResolver
0x65070BE91...Tropical Storm Saudel, recently upgraded to typhoon strength in the western Pacific, has tracked northwest after passing north of Guam and the Northern Mariana Islands with sustained winds near 90-110 mph. Forecasters monitor its eyewall replacement cycle and shifting environmental conditions that could limit further intensification before any landfall. Model guidance shows increasing spread beyond three days, with some ensembles favoring a path toward southeastern China around five days out while others indicate possible interaction with Taiwan or indirect effects on northern Luzon through enhanced monsoon rainfall. Official updates from JTWC, JMA, and PAGASA, along with satellite trends and cross-track uncertainty, remain the primary drivers of trader positioning on resolution locations and timing.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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