**Forecast models indicate a southerly change overnight on August 31 will drive the primary cooling, shifting winds from strong northwesterlies to cooler southwesterlies and introducing scattered showers that enhance radiative cooling under variable cloud cover.** Official guidance from MetService and other agencies projects a daytime high near 15–16°C followed by a minimum of 4–6°C, with some runs showing potential for brief dips to 4°C or below in sheltered areas as the cold, moist air mass advects in. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around 5°C or below (40%), 7°C (34%), and 8°C (27%), reflecting uncertainty in the exact timing of the front, cloud persistence, and localized wind sheltering that can produce 1–2°C differences in observed minima. Historical August overnight lows in Wellington typically range 5–8°C, so the current setup represents a modestly below-average event driven by the transient southerly flow rather than a prolonged cold outbreak. Updated model runs and MetService briefings through the evening of August 30 will likely refine the lowest temperature threshold most traders are targeting.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Wellington on August 31?
Lowest temperature in Wellington on August 31?
7°C 34%
8°C 27%
6°C 16%
9°C <1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
5°C or below
40%
6°C
16%
7°C
34%
8°C
27%
9°C
<1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
<1%
12°C
<1%
13°C
<1%
14°C
<1%
15°C or higher
<1%
7°C 34%
8°C 27%
6°C 16%
9°C <1%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 31, 2026
5°C or below
$20 Обс.
40%
6°C
$518 Обс.
16%
7°C
$30 Обс.
34%
8°C
$0 Обс.
27%
9°C
$278 Обс.
<1%
10°C
$144 Обс.
<1%
11°C
$167 Обс.
<1%
12°C
$180 Обс.
<1%
13°C
$20 Обс.
<1%
14°C
$30 Обс.
<1%
15°C or higher
$83 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a southerly change overnight on August 31 will drive the primary cooling, shifting winds from strong northwesterlies to cooler southwesterlies and introducing scattered showers that enhance radiative cooling under variable cloud cover.** Official guidance from MetService and other agencies projects a daytime high near 15–16°C followed by a minimum of 4–6°C, with some runs showing potential for brief dips to 4°C or below in sheltered areas as the cold, moist air mass advects in.
This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around 5°C or below (40%), 7°C (34%), and 8°C (27%), reflecting uncertainty in the exact timing of the front, cloud persistence, and localized wind sheltering that can produce 1–2°C differences in observed minima. Historical August overnight lows in Wellington typically range 5–8°C, so the current setup represents a modestly below-average event driven by the transient southerly flow rather than a prolonged cold outbreak. Updated model runs and MetService briefings through the evening of August 30 will likely refine the lowest temperature threshold most traders are targeting.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,470Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.**Forecast models indicate a southerly change overnight on August 31 will drive the primary cooling, shifting winds from strong northwesterlies to cooler southwesterlies and introducing scattered showers that enhance radiative cooling under variable cloud cover.** Official guidance from MetService and other agencies projects a daytime high near 15–16°C followed by a minimum of 4–6°C, with some runs showing potential for brief dips to 4°C or below in sheltered areas as the cold, moist air mass advects in.
This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around 5°C or below (40%), 7°C (34%), and 8°C (27%), reflecting uncertainty in the exact timing of the front, cloud persistence, and localized wind sheltering that can produce 1–2°C differences in observed minima. Historical August overnight lows in Wellington typically range 5–8°C, so the current setup represents a modestly below-average event driven by the transient southerly flow rather than a prolonged cold outbreak. Updated model runs and MetService briefings through the evening of August 30 will likely refine the lowest temperature threshold most traders are targeting.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 31 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwn
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,470Дата завершення
Aug 31, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 29, 2026, 12:29 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=nzwnВирішувач
0x69c47De9D...**Forecast models indicate a southerly change overnight on August 31 will drive the primary cooling, shifting winds from strong northwesterlies to cooler southwesterlies and introducing scattered showers that enhance radiative cooling under variable cloud cover.** Official guidance from MetService and other agencies projects a daytime high near 15–16°C followed by a minimum of 4–6°C, with some runs showing potential for brief dips to 4°C or below in sheltered areas as the cold, moist air mass advects in. This aligns with the market’s tight clustering around 5°C or below (40%), 7°C (34%), and 8°C (27%), reflecting uncertainty in the exact timing of the front, cloud persistence, and localized wind sheltering that can produce 1–2°C differences in observed minima. Historical August overnight lows in Wellington typically range 5–8°C, so the current setup represents a modestly below-average event driven by the transient southerly flow rather than a prolonged cold outbreak. Updated model runs and MetService briefings through the evening of August 30 will likely refine the lowest temperature threshold most traders are targeting.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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