Recent model guidance and persistent high-pressure patterns over western Europe point to continued warm nights in Paris through August 5, with limited cloud cover and southerly flow maintaining elevated minimum temperatures. Official climatological baselines place typical early-August lows near 15–16 °C, yet current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF show overnight values several degrees above average, aligning with trader consensus around 19–21 °C. A late-July heat episode that pushed daytime maxima above 35 °C appears to be lingering, reducing radiative cooling and keeping the boundary layer warm. Key upcoming updates—new 00Z and 12Z model runs plus Météo-France’s daily bulletins—will refine the exact minimum, particularly any shift in steering flow or incoming Atlantic moisture that could lower readings. Market-implied probabilities therefore reflect this sustained warmth while acknowledging the narrow window for forecast adjustments before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in Paris on August 5?
Lowest temperature in Paris on August 5?
20°C 45%
19°C 29%
21°C 15%
18°C 15%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 5, 2026
16°C or below
1%
17°C
5%
18°C
15%
19°C
29%
20°C
45%
21°C
15%
22°C
5%
23°C
1%
24°C
1%
25°C
<1%
26°C or higher
<1%
20°C 45%
19°C 29%
21°C 15%
18°C 15%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 5, 2026
16°C or below
$158 Обс.
1%
17°C
$55 Обс.
5%
18°C
$58 Обс.
15%
19°C
$44 Обс.
29%
20°C
$467 Обс.
45%
21°C
$63 Обс.
15%
22°C
$44 Обс.
5%
23°C
$213 Обс.
1%
24°C
$132 Обс.
1%
25°C
$66 Обс.
<1%
26°C or higher
$66 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance and persistent high-pressure patterns over western Europe point to continued warm nights in Paris through August 5, with limited cloud cover and southerly flow maintaining elevated minimum temperatures. Official climatological baselines place typical early-August lows near 15–16 °C, yet current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF show overnight values several degrees above average, aligning with trader consensus around 19–21 °C. A late-July heat episode that pushed daytime maxima above 35 °C appears to be lingering, reducing radiative cooling and keeping the boundary layer warm. Key upcoming updates—new 00Z and 12Z model runs plus Météo-France’s daily bulletins—will refine the exact minimum, particularly any shift in steering flow or incoming Atlantic moisture that could lower readings. Market-implied probabilities therefore reflect this sustained warmth while acknowledging the narrow window for forecast adjustments before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
Обсяг
$1,365Дата завершення
Aug 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent model guidance and persistent high-pressure patterns over western Europe point to continued warm nights in Paris through August 5, with limited cloud cover and southerly flow maintaining elevated minimum temperatures. Official climatological baselines place typical early-August lows near 15–16 °C, yet current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF show overnight values several degrees above average, aligning with trader consensus around 19–21 °C. A late-July heat episode that pushed daytime maxima above 35 °C appears to be lingering, reducing radiative cooling and keeping the boundary layer warm. Key upcoming updates—new 00Z and 12Z model runs plus Météo-France’s daily bulletins—will refine the exact minimum, particularly any shift in steering flow or incoming Atlantic moisture that could lower readings. Market-implied probabilities therefore reflect this sustained warmth while acknowledging the narrow window for forecast adjustments before resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 5 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$1,365Дата завершення
Aug 5, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 3, 2026, 12:30 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model guidance and persistent high-pressure patterns over western Europe point to continued warm nights in Paris through August 5, with limited cloud cover and southerly flow maintaining elevated minimum temperatures. Official climatological baselines place typical early-August lows near 15–16 °C, yet current ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF show overnight values several degrees above average, aligning with trader consensus around 19–21 °C. A late-July heat episode that pushed daytime maxima above 35 °C appears to be lingering, reducing radiative cooling and keeping the boundary layer warm. Key upcoming updates—new 00Z and 12Z model runs plus Météo-France’s daily bulletins—will refine the exact minimum, particularly any shift in steering flow or incoming Atlantic moisture that could lower readings. Market-implied probabilities therefore reflect this sustained warmth while acknowledging the narrow window for forecast adjustments before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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