Recent forecasts indicate a heat surge across northern France, with models from Météo-France and European ensembles pointing to a daily maximum in Paris on August 3 likely reaching 34–36 °C under mostly clear, subsiding high-pressure conditions. This aligns with the market’s leading outcomes, where trader consensus assigns the highest implied probabilities to 35 °C and 36 °C. The episode follows an early-August warm anomaly driven by southerly flow and reduced cloud cover, elevating temperatures several degrees above the long-term August mean of roughly 24–26 °C. Updated model runs continue to refine the precise peak, with any eastward shift in the ridge or increased instability potentially trimming or boosting the high by 1–2 °C before resolution.