Latest National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a minimum temperature in New York City on August 15 most likely between 70°F and 73°F, reflecting the balanced 31% market-implied odds on the 70-71°F and 72-73°F bins. Persistent above-average warmth for the month, combined with elevated humidity and limited overnight radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies, has kept forecast lows in the low 70s rather than the seasonal norm near 68°F. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and timing of any weak frontal passage creates the close contest between those two leading outcomes, while lower probabilities on 68-69°F or 74°F+ reflect the narrower uncertainty range typical for a 24-hour forecast window. Updated model runs from NOAA and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоLowest temperature in NYC on August 15?
Lowest temperature in NYC on August 15?
70-71°F 44%
72-73°F 32%
74-75°F 16%
68-69°F 15%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 15, 2026
57°F or below
<1%
58-59°F
<1%
60-61°F
1%
62-63°F
3%
64-65°F
4%
66-67°F
7%
68-69°F
15%
70-71°F
44%
72-73°F
32%
74-75°F
16%
76°F or higher
4%
70-71°F 44%
72-73°F 32%
74-75°F 16%
68-69°F 15%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 15, 2026
57°F or below
$15 Обс.
<1%
58-59°F
$5 Обс.
<1%
60-61°F
$20 Обс.
1%
62-63°F
$25 Обс.
3%
64-65°F
$130 Обс.
4%
66-67°F
$48 Обс.
7%
68-69°F
$43 Обс.
15%
70-71°F
$0 Обс.
44%
72-73°F
$0 Обс.
32%
74-75°F
$22 Обс.
16%
76°F or higher
$30 Обс.
4%
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a minimum temperature in New York City on August 15 most likely between 70°F and 73°F, reflecting the balanced 31% market-implied odds on the 70-71°F and 72-73°F bins. Persistent above-average warmth for the month, combined with elevated humidity and limited overnight radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies, has kept forecast lows in the low 70s rather than the seasonal norm near 68°F. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and timing of any weak frontal passage creates the close contest between those two leading outcomes, while lower probabilities on 68-69°F or 74°F+ reflect the narrower uncertainty range typical for a 24-hour forecast window. Updated model runs from NOAA and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 13, 2026, 9:28 PM ET
Обсяг
$338Дата завершення
Aug 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 9:28 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Latest National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a minimum temperature in New York City on August 15 most likely between 70°F and 73°F, reflecting the balanced 31% market-implied odds on the 70-71°F and 72-73°F bins. Persistent above-average warmth for the month, combined with elevated humidity and limited overnight radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies, has kept forecast lows in the low 70s rather than the seasonal norm near 68°F. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and timing of any weak frontal passage creates the close contest between those two leading outcomes, while lower probabilities on 68-69°F or 74°F+ reflect the narrower uncertainty range typical for a 24-hour forecast window. Updated model runs from NOAA and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
This market will resolve based on the lowest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded at the LaGuardia Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 15 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the lowest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the LaGuardia Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$338Дата завершення
Aug 15, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 13, 2026, 9:28 PM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest National Weather Service and ensemble model guidance points to a minimum temperature in New York City on August 15 most likely between 70°F and 73°F, reflecting the balanced 31% market-implied odds on the 70-71°F and 72-73°F bins. Persistent above-average warmth for the month, combined with elevated humidity and limited overnight radiational cooling under partly cloudy skies, has kept forecast lows in the low 70s rather than the seasonal norm near 68°F. Minor model spread in boundary-layer mixing and timing of any weak frontal passage creates the close contest between those two leading outcomes, while lower probabilities on 68-69°F or 74°F+ reflect the narrower uncertainty range typical for a 24-hour forecast window. Updated model runs from NOAA and the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts will refine the exact minimum before resolution.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
Часті запитання