Persistent marine layer influence and steady onshore flow from the Pacific are anchoring National Weather Service model consensus near 74–77°F for the official Los Angeles station on August 15, aligning with the market’s dominant 76–77°F (49.5%) and 74–75°F (33.5%) outcomes. A strong temperature inversion caps daytime heating while low-level stratus and sea breezes deliver cooler maritime air, keeping highs below the 84–85°F August climatological average at coastal sites. Recent moderation following July’s extreme heat episode has reinforced this pattern, with ensemble guidance showing minimal day-to-day variability and low odds of significant warming absent a shift in the Pacific high or subsidence. Traders are pricing in these atmospheric conditions while noting that any late erosion of the marine layer or stronger offshore flow could still nudge readings into the low 80s.