Recent short-range forecast models position 26°C as the leading implied probability at 45% due to expected daytime highs in Istanbul hovering near seasonal norms of 26–28°C, influenced by Black Sea moderation, moderate humidity, and typical August pressure patterns that limit strong warming. Supporting data from extended outlooks show no developing heat dome or anomalous southerly flow to push readings toward 29°C or higher, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around 25–27°C. Coastal breezes and urban effects further cap peaks, aligning trader consensus with official agency guidance rather than historical monthly averages near 28°C. Updated model runs ahead of August 16 will provide the next key data point for any shifts in these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Istanbul on August 16?
Highest temperature in Istanbul on August 16?
26°C 54%
25°C 27%
27°C 27%
28°C 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 16, 2026
22°C or below
6%
23°C
7%
24°C
5%
25°C
27%
26°C
48%
27°C
27%
28°C
10%
29°C
4%
30°C
6%
31°C
6%
32°C or higher
4%
26°C 54%
25°C 27%
27°C 27%
28°C 10%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 16, 2026
22°C or below
$10 Обс.
6%
23°C
$10 Обс.
7%
24°C
$0 Обс.
5%
25°C
$0 Обс.
27%
26°C
$12 Обс.
48%
27°C
$6 Обс.
27%
28°C
$0 Обс.
10%
29°C
$3 Обс.
4%
30°C
$10 Обс.
6%
31°C
$10 Обс.
6%
32°C or higher
$15 Обс.
4%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast models position 26°C as the leading implied probability at 45% due to expected daytime highs in Istanbul hovering near seasonal norms of 26–28°C, influenced by Black Sea moderation, moderate humidity, and typical August pressure patterns that limit strong warming. Supporting data from extended outlooks show no developing heat dome or anomalous southerly flow to push readings toward 29°C or higher, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around 25–27°C. Coastal breezes and urban effects further cap peaks, aligning trader consensus with official agency guidance rather than historical monthly averages near 28°C. Updated model runs ahead of August 16 will provide the next key data point for any shifts in these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ET
Обсяг
$76Дата завершення
Aug 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent short-range forecast models position 26°C as the leading implied probability at 45% due to expected daytime highs in Istanbul hovering near seasonal norms of 26–28°C, influenced by Black Sea moderation, moderate humidity, and typical August pressure patterns that limit strong warming. Supporting data from extended outlooks show no developing heat dome or anomalous southerly flow to push readings toward 29°C or higher, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around 25–27°C. Coastal breezes and urban effects further cap peaks, aligning trader consensus with official agency guidance rather than historical monthly averages near 28°C. Updated model runs ahead of August 16 will provide the next key data point for any shifts in these probabilities.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Istanbul Airport in degrees Celsius on 16 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=LTFM
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$76Дата завершення
Aug 16, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 14, 2026, 12:57 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent short-range forecast models position 26°C as the leading implied probability at 45% due to expected daytime highs in Istanbul hovering near seasonal norms of 26–28°C, influenced by Black Sea moderation, moderate humidity, and typical August pressure patterns that limit strong warming. Supporting data from extended outlooks show no developing heat dome or anomalous southerly flow to push readings toward 29°C or higher, keeping the distribution tightly clustered around 25–27°C. Coastal breezes and urban effects further cap peaks, aligning trader consensus with official agency guidance rather than historical monthly averages near 28°C. Updated model runs ahead of August 16 will provide the next key data point for any shifts in these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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