Forecast models from sources including the Met Office and AccuWeather currently converge on a daily maximum of 13–14°C for Wellington on August 14, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities and the city’s August climatological average high near 13°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures for the region through winter, driven by typical southerly flow and limited anticyclonic influence. Key differentiating variables include cloud cover, wind direction shifts, and any late adjustments to high-resolution model runs that could push the peak above or below the narrow 13–14°C threshold. Short-range forecast uncertainty remains moderate given the two-day lead time, with traders weighting official agency guidance most heavily.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Wellington on August 14?
Highest temperature in Wellington on August 14?
14°C 47%
13°C 30%
15°C 12%
12°C 7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 14, 2026
8°C or below
1%
9°C
1%
10°C
<1%
11°C
6%
12°C
7%
13°C
30%
14°C
47%
15°C
12%
16°C
4%
17°C
6%
18°C or higher
2%
14°C 47%
13°C 30%
15°C 12%
12°C 7%
НОВЕ
НОВЕ
Aug 14, 2026
8°C or below
$203 Обс.
1%
9°C
$191 Обс.
1%
10°C
$105 Обс.
<1%
11°C
$12 Обс.
6%
12°C
$3 Обс.
7%
13°C
$51 Обс.
30%
14°C
$68 Обс.
47%
15°C
$1 Обс.
12%
16°C
$1 Обс.
4%
17°C
$2 Обс.
6%
18°C or higher
$12 Обс.
2%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the Met Office and AccuWeather currently converge on a daily maximum of 13–14°C for Wellington on August 14, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities and the city’s August climatological average high near 13°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures for the region through winter, driven by typical southerly flow and limited anticyclonic influence. Key differentiating variables include cloud cover, wind direction shifts, and any late adjustments to high-resolution model runs that could push the peak above or below the narrow 13–14°C threshold. Short-range forecast uncertainty remains moderate given the two-day lead time, with traders weighting official agency guidance most heavily.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 12, 2026, 12:02 AM ET
Обсяг
$649Дата завершення
Aug 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 12:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Forecast models from sources including the Met Office and AccuWeather currently converge on a daily maximum of 13–14°C for Wellington on August 14, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities and the city’s August climatological average high near 13°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures for the region through winter, driven by typical southerly flow and limited anticyclonic influence. Key differentiating variables include cloud cover, wind direction shifts, and any late adjustments to high-resolution model runs that could push the peak above or below the narrow 13–14°C threshold. Short-range forecast uncertainty remains moderate given the two-day lead time, with traders weighting official agency guidance most heavily.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Wellington Intl Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 14 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Wellington Intl Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWN.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$649Дата завершення
Aug 14, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 12, 2026, 12:02 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/nz/wellington/NZWNResolver
0x69c47De9D...Forecast models from sources including the Met Office and AccuWeather currently converge on a daily maximum of 13–14°C for Wellington on August 14, aligning with the market’s leading implied probabilities and the city’s August climatological average high near 13°C. NIWA’s seasonal outlook assigns the highest probability to near-average temperatures for the region through winter, driven by typical southerly flow and limited anticyclonic influence. Key differentiating variables include cloud cover, wind direction shifts, and any late adjustments to high-resolution model runs that could push the peak above or below the narrow 13–14°C threshold. Short-range forecast uncertainty remains moderate given the two-day lead time, with traders weighting official agency guidance most heavily.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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