Recent forecasts from sources like timeanddate and Trip.com indicate Shanghai will likely see overcast skies, scattered thunderstorms, and light rain on August 12, 2026, which limits daytime solar heating and caps the daily maximum near 29–30°C. These conditions align with the market's tight clustering around 28–30°C (combined ~95% implied probability), as persistent cloud cover and precipitation reduce the potential for stronger warming typical of August's subtropical climate. Historical August averages hover near 31–32°C, but recent model runs show a cooler pattern driven by regional moisture and atmospheric stability, with highs on preceding days already suppressed to 28–29°C amid similar weather. The leading 29°C outcome reflects trader consensus on this near-term forecast consensus, while the spread to 28°C and 30°C captures uncertainty in exact storm timing and intensity from numerical weather prediction models. Updated guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration ahead of the date could refine these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · ОновленоHighest temperature in Shanghai on August 12?
Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 12?
29°C 49%
28°C 27%
30°C 21%
27°C 4%
НОВЕ
$10,196 Обс.
НОВЕ
$10,196 Обс.
Aug 12, 2026
24°C or below
<1%
25°C
<1%
26°C
1%
27°C
4%
28°C
27%
29°C
49%
30°C
21%
31°C
4%
32°C
1%
33°C
<1%
34°C or higher
<1%
29°C 49%
28°C 27%
30°C 21%
27°C 4%
НОВЕ
$10,196 Обс.
НОВЕ
$10,196 Обс.
Aug 12, 2026
24°C or below
$582 Обс.
<1%
25°C
$625 Обс.
<1%
26°C
$331 Обс.
1%
27°C
$951 Обс.
4%
28°C
$2,087 Обс.
27%
29°C
$1,970 Обс.
49%
30°C
$1,625 Обс.
21%
31°C
$952 Обс.
4%
32°C
$242 Обс.
1%
33°C
$520 Обс.
<1%
34°C or higher
$311 Обс.
<1%
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources like timeanddate and Trip.com indicate Shanghai will likely see overcast skies, scattered thunderstorms, and light rain on August 12, 2026, which limits daytime solar heating and caps the daily maximum near 29–30°C. These conditions align with the market's tight clustering around 28–30°C (combined ~95% implied probability), as persistent cloud cover and precipitation reduce the potential for stronger warming typical of August's subtropical climate. Historical August averages hover near 31–32°C, but recent model runs show a cooler pattern driven by regional moisture and atmospheric stability, with highs on preceding days already suppressed to 28–29°C amid similar weather. The leading 29°C outcome reflects trader consensus on this near-term forecast consensus, while the spread to 28°C and 30°C captures uncertainty in exact storm timing and intensity from numerical weather prediction models. Updated guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration ahead of the date could refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Ринок відкрито: Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Обсяг
$10,196Дата завершення
Aug 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Recent forecasts from sources like timeanddate and Trip.com indicate Shanghai will likely see overcast skies, scattered thunderstorms, and light rain on August 12, 2026, which limits daytime solar heating and caps the daily maximum near 29–30°C. These conditions align with the market's tight clustering around 28–30°C (combined ~95% implied probability), as persistent cloud cover and precipitation reduce the potential for stronger warming typical of August's subtropical climate. Historical August averages hover near 31–32°C, but recent model runs show a cooler pattern driven by regional moisture and atmospheric stability, with highs on preceding days already suppressed to 28–29°C amid similar weather. The leading 29°C outcome reflects trader consensus on this near-term forecast consensus, while the spread to 28°C and 30°C captures uncertainty in exact storm timing and intensity from numerical weather prediction models. Updated guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration ahead of the date could refine these probabilities.
This market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded in the 'Daily Observations' table on Weather Underground, not the figure displayed in the 'Day High & Low' summary section; in the event of any discrepancy between the two, the Daily Observations table shall be the primary resolution source not the Day High & Low section.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 12 Aug '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Обсяг
$10,196Дата завершення
Aug 12, 2026Ринок відкрито
Aug 10, 2026, 12:04 AM ETДжерело вирішення
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shanghai/ZSPDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent forecasts from sources like timeanddate and Trip.com indicate Shanghai will likely see overcast skies, scattered thunderstorms, and light rain on August 12, 2026, which limits daytime solar heating and caps the daily maximum near 29–30°C. These conditions align with the market's tight clustering around 28–30°C (combined ~95% implied probability), as persistent cloud cover and precipitation reduce the potential for stronger warming typical of August's subtropical climate. Historical August averages hover near 31–32°C, but recent model runs show a cooler pattern driven by regional moisture and atmospheric stability, with highs on preceding days already suppressed to 28–29°C amid similar weather. The leading 29°C outcome reflects trader consensus on this near-term forecast consensus, while the spread to 28°C and 30°C captures uncertainty in exact storm timing and intensity from numerical weather prediction models. Updated guidance from agencies like the China Meteorological Administration ahead of the date could refine these probabilities.
Експериментальне резюме, згенероване ШІ з посиланням на дані Polymarket. Це не торгова порада і не впливає на вирішення цього ринку. · Оновлено
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Обережно з зовнішніми посиланнями.
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