Recent short-range ensemble forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and other global models point to a maximum temperature in Warsaw on August 16 in the 27–29°C range, driven by increasing warm-air advection under a stable high-pressure system, light southeasterly winds, and variable cloud cover that modulates daytime solar heating. These conditions follow a period of gradual warming, with historical August averages near 23–25°C providing context but current synoptic patterns favoring above-normal readings. Key differentiating factors among the closely matched 27°C, 28°C, and 29°C outcomes include the precise timing and extent of any afternoon cloud build-up, which can suppress peak temperatures by several degrees, alongside minor shifts in boundary-layer moisture and wind speed that influence sensible heat flux. New model runs and observational updates over the next 48 hours will refine these projections ahead of market resolution.