Recent forecasts from multiple models indicate Amsterdam's minimum temperature on August 31 will likely fall in the 13–16°C range amid a period of persistent cloud cover, scattered thunderstorms, and southwesterly winds associated with a passing low-pressure system. These conditions limit nocturnal radiative cooling by trapping heat near the surface while advection of milder maritime air keeps values above seasonal normals. Traders assign the highest implied probabilities to 15°C, 14°C, and 16°C because ensemble spreads and local variations in timing of showers create genuine uncertainty around the precise overnight low, with heavier rain potentially raising minima through latent heat release and lighter winds allowing brief dips toward 13°C. Official guidance from agencies such as KNMI and ECMWF updates through the evening will provide the final observational data used for market resolution.